BTC at $75,800, are you still waiting for a crash?
ETF outflow of $1.28 billion in one week, long positions liquidated by $1 billion, the group chat is full of “bear is coming” — yet the price stubbornly holds above 75k. October CPI, is it the final blow or the starting gun for a comeback?
First, look at the surface: bad news bombardment, but the price didn’t crash.
At the beginning of November, BTC dropped from 80k-81k down to 75k, a decline of over 5%, with daily liquidations at the $1 billion level. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the worst single week since the end of June, turning the 2026 cumulative net inflow negative. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed the majority. The daily RSI dropped to 38, MACD formed a death cross, and the price is below the short-term moving averages.
Logically, this scenario should have crashed. But it just sideways between 75k-76.5k. Volume shrank, selling pressure exhausted, and there’s clear buying near 75k.
First point: ETF outflow of $1.28 billion is not a collapse of faith, it’s institutions crouching and waiting for the CPI.
Institutions aren’t abandoning BTC; they’re waiting for the November 10 CPI. Hot data → rate cut expectations cool → risk assets get hit; cold data → a breather → BTC rebounds. These pros are smart; they won’t heavily bet on direction before the data release.
And looking long term: ETF cumulative net inflow still exceeds $55 billion, Strategy holds about 845,000 BTC, still talking about a “Bitcoin bank.” Short-term outflows are tactical retreats; long-term holdings are strategic base positions.
Second point: BTC is no longer “digital gold,” it’s the shadow of Nasdaq.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in October, two officials still want hikes, tone is hawkish. Market prices in a high probability of a December hike. The dollar index is strong, tech/AI sectors weaken, BTC shakes accordingly. September CPI about 3.7%, core 2.6%, inflation sticks like chewing gum.
In a high interest rate environment, the risk-free rate competes with BTC.
Third point: Technicals tell you 75k is a betting table, not a bottom.
Daily/4H structure is bearish: November 4-5 saw a rapid drop from 80k-81k to 75k, sideways near 75k, bulls and bears temporarily balanced but selling pressure still dominant. There’s support at the lower wedge/channel, but no volume breakout above 76.5k-78k means no reversal.
Support: 75,000-75,200 (psychological level + recent low) → 74,000 → 72k-73k → 70k
Resistance: 76,000-76,300 (intraday pivot) → 77,000-78,000 (former support turned resistance) → 80k-81k
There is buying support at 75k, but no one-sided crash; short-term bears dominate, waiting for CPI to set direction.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Clear buying support at 75k, selling pressure exhausted
ETF long-term cumulative inflow still over $55 billion
Strategy’s 845,000 BTC holdings remain firm
Support at the lower wedge, oversold rebound demand
On the other side:
ETF weekly outflow of $1.28 billion, institutions cooling off short term
Fed hawkish, high probability of December hike
Daily RSI 38, MACD death cross, bearish structure
Heavy resistance at 76.5k-78k, no volume breakout means fake rebound
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Current main tone is bearish. If rebound to 76,000-76,500 fails to show volume, try light short positions with stop loss above 76,800-77,000, target 74,800-75,000.
If it breaks below 75,000, quickly exit or if volume supports a hold above 76,300, try light long positions with stop loss below 74,800, target 78,000-80,000.
Range trade between 75,200-76,300 with high sell and low buy, strict stop loss on breakout. Avoid heavy positions around CPI, keep leverage under 5-10% of account.
Mid-term players:
Wait for CPI. If cold data + hold above 78k, buy dips targeting 80k-85k; if hot data or break below 74k, look for 72k or lower, patiently wait for better entry points.
Long-term believers:
BTC’s long-term allocation value remains, but short-term macro pressure must be respected. Dollar-cost averaging is fine, all-in is not. Position size should control 10-30% of total assets, consider heavy positions only if it breaks below 70k.
BTC now is like BTC in October 2023 —
Everyone thought “macro killed it, no more upside,” but once ETF expectations fermented, it went straight from 27k to 73k. $BTC$ETH$ZEC
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