SOL at $90, are you still waiting for altcoin season?
Good news exploded: Alpenglow mainnet launched, Samsung Wallet supports USDC, Breakpoint kicks off next week — yet SOL is still stuck at $90. Is this a golden opportunity, or a grave dug by the big players?
Let's look at the surface first: the news is one after another, but the price just won't rise.
"Samsung Wallet launches USDC on Solana," you think this should pump it, right?
But waking up this morning, it actually dropped 0.5% in 24 hours, 6% in 7 days, and nearly 20% in 30 days. From the all-time high of 293, it's down 69%.
"Is Solana done for?"
First thing: Alpenglow is not a pump drug, it's a moat.
On October 21, Alpenglow mainnet launched, finality time improved from 12.8 seconds down to 150 milliseconds.
What does that mean?
You blink, and Solana has already confirmed a dozen transactions. Visa, stablecoins, RWA, payments — these institutional-level scenarios require this speed.
But why no price reaction?
Because the upgrade is a long-term positive, not a short-term stimulant.
The market is currently out of money, ETFs are flowing out, leverage is being liquidated, tech stocks are falling, and even BTC can't hold steady. Do you expect a tech upgrade to ignite the entire altcoin season?
Good news without price rise doesn't mean it's useless; it means the chips haven't fully rotated yet.
Second thing: Samsung, USDC, RWA are real adoption, but the price lags.
Samsung Wallet supports USDC on Solana, targeting US Galaxy users.
Stablecoin supply remains high at $15 billion, RWA has tokenization related to Schroders and JPMorgan, DeFi TVL and DEX volume remain competitive among L1s.
This is not a meme narrative; this is real money and assets going on-chain.
But what's the problem?
Macro risk aversion. Liquidation waves exceed $1 billion, ETF outflows, tech stock sell-offs spill over, and negative statements from China. SOL is a high-beta asset; when BTC sneezes, SOL goes to ICU.
Third thing: $90 is not just a price, it's the 200-day moving average underwear.
Open TradingView, the daily chart shows a mid-term downtrend channel, lower highs, and significant 30-day declines.
Price has already hit near the 200-day moving average — $88 to $90, which is mid-term support and the lifeline between bulls and bears.
RSI previously touched near 38, indicating oversold rebound demand, but no strong divergence formed.
Volume increased during declines, indicating selling pressure remains.
4H chart repeatedly tests lows but fails to break above the descending trendline with volume.
Bears still have the upper hand but have hit the big players' underwear.
Holding $88-$90 could mean a double bottom rebound; a volume break below $88 leads to $85-$87, $80, then down to $74-$70.
The 200-day moving average is the big players' underwear and retail investors' shame cloth. Breaking it means all narratives must be repriced.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Alpenglow mainnet launched, 150ms finality, a technical milestone
Samsung Wallet USDC, $15B stablecoins, ongoing RWA implementation
Active developers, low fees, high throughput, one of the top L1s
200-day MA $88-$90 key support, RSI oversold with rebound demand
Breakpoint London conference Nov 15-17, sentiment catalyst window
On the other side:
ETF outflows, liquidation waves over $1B, tech stock sell-off spillover
30-day drop 17-20%, mid-term downtrend channel, lower highs structure
Decline with volume, selling pressure remains, 4H no breakout above descending trendline
BTC unstable, altcoin liquidity shrinking, high-beta assets get hit first
Negative statements from China, meme speculation rising but no strong trend
Key levels.
Resistance above: 91-92 → 95-98 → 100-105
Support below: 88-90 (200-day MA + low cluster) → 85-87 → 80 → 74-70
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for hammer or engulfing reversal candlestick in the $88.5-$90.5 range, then lightly go long with stop loss below 87, target 94-98 to take half profit, then watch 100-105.
If volume breaks below 88 and holds, lightly short with targets 85 → 80, stop loss above 91.
Swing traders:
Hold $88-$90 and reclaim above 95, then consider buying dips for mid-term longs, target above 110.
If breaks below 85 and remains weak, don't hold hard, reassess at 75-80. Single trade risk no more than 1-2% of total capital, perpetual leverage no more than 5-10x.
Long-term believers:
Fundamentals intact, Alpenglow and RWA are real.
Key support zone for dollar-cost averaging or adding in batches, but be prepared for volatility. Reduce positions if breaks below 85, not betrayal but preserving the ticket for next entry.
SOL now is like SOL at the end of 2023 —
Everyone said "FTX buried it," but it went from $8 to 293.
But this time is different: altcoin season hasn't failed to come, BTC just hasn't given the signal.
SOL is not done, liquidity just hasn't returned yet.
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