Bitcoin at $75,600, can you sleep tonight?
Over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, all longs. US stocks crashed 5%, BTC plunged 6%, dropping straight from 81k to 75.6k. The fear and greed index fell to 28, the group chat is full of "It's over, it's over." But just now, the price held firmly at 75k—Is this the last drop or the entrance to the abyss?
Let's look at the surface first: blood everywhere, but someone is picking up chips in the basement.
Nasdaq fell 5.5%, S&P down 4.4%, AI valuations hammered, tech spending questioned, Democratic midterm election advantage brings regulatory uncertainty—BTC's correlation with US stocks soared to 0.98. Now it’s not "digital gold," it’s a leveraged version of Nasdaq.
First thing: $1 billion longs buried alive, who’s catching?
Over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, the vast majority longs. Leveraged players got wiped out, the group chat is full of wails.
On-chain data shows: whales are accumulating during the pullback, long-term holder supply is stable, ETF holdings still exceed 1.2 million BTC.
Retail investors are cutting losses, big whales are picking up the corpses.
The same script played out on August 5, 2024, during the JPY arbitrage liquidation crash. BTC dropped from 62k to 49k, everyone said "the bear is here." What happened? New highs three months later.
Second thing: 75.7k is the cost line for short-term holders and your psychological defense line.
On-chain data is straightforward: the average cost for short-term holders is around 75.7k-76k. The current price is exactly stuck at this level.
This means those who entered in the past few months are now all at a loss or break-even. They are facing a choice: cut losses and exit, or hold on and wait to break even?
Your answer is the market’s direction.
If 75k holds, these people hold on, selling pressure exhausts, a rebound is imminent.
If 75k breaks, panic selling floods out, next stop 73.2k (200-day moving average), then 71.5k-70k.
Third thing: Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls, a lifeline or the final blow?
US October nonfarm employment data is released today, expected +59k to +65k, unemployment rate 4.2%.
Data stronger than expected → Fed hawkish → rate hike expectations rise → risk assets continue to get hammered → BTC may break below 75k
Data weaker than expected → rate hike pressure eases → rebound window opens → BTC may quickly reclaim 76.5k+
It’s a coin toss. But you should know: the market has already priced in "bad news." Fear and greed index at 28, ETF outflows of 430 million, longs have been liquidated—pessimism is maxed out.
When everyone expects bad news, a little better is a surge.
But conversely, if the data really bombs and 75k doesn’t hold, don’t catch the falling knife.
Fourth thing: Technicals tell you oversold but not bottomed.
Daily chart: broke below SMA7 (77.5k), SMA20 (79.7k), SMA50 (82k), also below 100-day MA (76.9k). Short-term trend bearish, no doubt.
But the 200-day MA at 73.2k, the mid-term uptrend structure is not completely broken.
RSI shows oversold signs, 4H has a long lower shadow forming. If after tonight’s data there’s a volume surge bullish candle or RSI divergence, rebound probability greatly increases.
Key levels are simple:
Resistance above: 76.9k-77.5k (first rebound hurdle) → 79k-80k (previous high dense zone) → 82k
Support below: 75k (psychological + cost) → 73.6k-73.2k (200-day MA, lifeline) → 71.6k → 70k
Long-short showdown, you decide
On one side:
Whales accumulating during pullback, long-term holders haven’t fled
200-day MA at 73.2k still intact, mid-term structure unbroken
Fear and greed index 28, sentiment at extreme fear
Short-term oversold, rebound momentum building
If nonfarm weaker than expected, rebound window opens
On the other side:
US stock crash, AI bubble worries, risk appetite plummets
$1 billion longs liquidated, leverage cleanup unfinished
ETF net outflow 430 million, institutions cautious short-term
If 75k breaks, next stops 73.2k or even 70k
Fed rate hike expectations remain, macro pressure not lifted
Trading strategy
Bullish bias:
If 74.5k-75.5k holds, with 4H volume surge bullish candle or RSI divergence, try light long positions. Stop loss below 73.5k, target 76.9k-77.5k to take half profit, break above targets 79k-80k. Position size no more than 10-15% of total funds, enter in batches.
Bearish bias:
If 74.5k breaks decisively and accelerates down, follow short, target 73k → 71.5k, stop loss above 76k. Beware of fake breakdown rebounds, don’t chase shorts at the bottom.
Mid-term layout:
If it retests 73k-74k and macro doesn’t worsen, dollar-cost average in batches. The 200-day MA area is institutional cost zone, long-term logic intact. Target back to 80k+, but it takes time.
BTC now is like August 2024—
99% think "US stocks crashed, BTC is done," but three months later new highs.
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