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November 6, 2026, Issue 114 Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis In the previous issue, I bet on a scenario, in which the second step was written as follows: After the election results came out, BTC would surge to between 79,500 and 80,600, then the positive news would be fully priced in and it would pull back. What actually happened this week was: On the night of the election, the highest point reached near 81,000, a bit higher than expected; on Thursday, the US stock market dropped 5.5% overnight, and BTC fell back to 76,000. The second step of the scenario was completed. I have to admit that on Wednesday, when oil prices fell below 100 and the Dow Jones surged, I once raised the probability of a "direct strengthening". But just one day later, the US stock market gave the answer. This also reminded me that one day’s news is not worth changing a week’s judgment. This issue puts together the changes before and after the election, the 2018 template, several new historical experiences, and on-chain data to update the roadmap for the next five weeks. 01 What exactly happened in these three days? November 3 was the midterm election. According to multiple media reports, the Republicans lost, and the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress. On November 4, the market initially traded on the "good news". The reason was straightforward: a change in Congress means added constraints on the executive branch, reducing the likelihood of the Iran war escalating. Brent crude oil fell from the October 23 high of 116 dollars to below 100 dollars, intraday reaching around 94 dollars; US stocks surged; BTC liquidated about 378 million dollars worth of short positions within an hour, and the spot ETF also ended a three-consecutive-