Trump has recently repeatedly declared: "I'm back, I want to make America great again, and I want Bitcoin to be mined/held in the US." The market immediately reacted: $BTC pulled back from the lower bound of the consolidation range in the short term, with volatility rising.
But note two points:
1. News is an emotional catalyst, not the trend itself.
Trump/election narratives tend to create "expectation trading": dumping before bad news lands → positive speeches/polls → short-term surge → real liquidity doesn't follow, so it falls back.
2. Currently, BTC looks more like high-level event-driven oscillation, unlike the major cycle bottoms in 2014/2018/2022.
The previous three times were bottoms after deep bear market drops; now if $BTC is still oscillating between tens of thousands to a hundred thousand, structurally it is closer to:
Macro narratives + ETF capital flows + options Gamma/Delta hedging jointly pricing, rather than simply "bottoming 13 days after the election."
Continuing the key signals I mentioned before:
· If the weekly chart still holds the previous low/key moving average support, and RSI does not make a new low, it indicates the bottom is not broken yet;
· If volume breaks below the previous low and stablecoin inflows stagnate, then the "election narrative" might just be a bull trap;
· If after Trump's speech only futures rally and spot does not follow, beware of a false breakout.
This time may not repeat the historical "bottoming at 71/39/13 days," because the market phase is completely different.
What matters now is: who is buying, how long they buy, and whether they can absorb selling pressure.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
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