ETH at $2320, are you still waiting for 2000?
ETF outflows for 7 consecutive days, $1.2 billion ran out in October, Gas fees dropped to 0.03 Gwei with no one using the mainnet—yet just now, Citi went against the trend and raised the target price to 3028, pushing the price from 2220 sharply back up to 2320. Is this the last bull trap before institutions exit, or the golden bottom of the bear market?
Let's look at the surface first: bad news bombarding, but the price isn't falling.
It dropped 14-16% in the past 30 days, still 53% below the all-time high of 4946. But in the last 24 hours, it rose 2-3%, rebounding from 2220 to 2320. The 2220-2260 range is a dense trading zone, the 4H chart shows higher lows, and RSI climbed back from oversold to 50. The drop has stalled. Do you believe it?
First thing: ETFs are running, Citi is buying.
The US stock spot ETH ETF has had net outflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with a single-day net outflow of $85.3 million on November 3, of which BlackRock ETHA alone withdrew $74.4 million. October saw over $1.2 billion in outflows.
Sounds scary? But on the same day, Citi raised its 12-month target from 2240 to 3028.
On one side, institutions vote with their feet; on the other, investment banks shout buy calls. Which do you think is real?
ETF outflows are short-term trading behavior; Citi's upgrade is a long-term valuation judgment. Hedge funds are running, pensions are buying.
Second thing: Gas fees at 0.03 Gwei, you think it's bad news?
No one is using the ETH mainnet, Gas is almost free, deflation narrative collapsed. Gas was also ridiculously low in 2020, what happened then?
Gas is low because L2 solutions have diverted activity, not because no one uses ETH. Stablecoins with $140-160 billion in scale still run on ETH, DeFi TVL is $40-50 billion, and 35% of supply is staked and locked. Usage hasn't decreased, it's just moved elsewhere.
Deflation is weaker, true, with annual supply growth at 0.8% close to BTC. But ETH's narrative has never been "scarcity," it's "utility." Losing scarcity to BTC isn't shameful; winning in utility over everyone else is enough.
Third thing: ETH/BTC dropped to 0.029, this is the most painful signal.
ETH/BTC ratio at 0.029, near the lowest in months. ETH is underperforming BTC, the king of altcoins can't beat the big brother.
Before the 2021 bull market started, ETH/BTC was at this level. Before SOL surged at the end of 2023, ETH/BTC was also low. Every time ETH/BTC falls to a despairing level, it's the eve of altcoin season.
But when will altcoin season come? No one knows. Could be next month, could be Q1 next year. Can you hold on until then?
Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide:
On one side:
Citi raised target to 3028, long-term valuation recovery
Strong support at 2220-2260 held, 4H higher lows
35% staked and locked, circulating supply decreasing
ETH/BTC at historical lows, altcoin season precursor
Whales net outflow from exchanges, accumulation signal
On the other side:
ETF outflows for 7 consecutive days, $1.2 billion out in October
Macro is hawkish, US Treasury yields high and suppressing
Gas low, deflation weak, value capture questioned
Glamsterdam upgrade test delayed, catalyst absent
Fear & Greed index 26-34, fear zone
Key levels
Resistance above: 2320-2350 (current rebound high) → 2400-2450 → 2500 (50-day MA)
Support below: 2220-2260 (iron bottom) → 2150-2200 (200-day MA) → 2000-2100 (extreme case)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Light long positions at 2260-2280, stop loss at 2220, target 2320-2350 to take half profits. Add positions if breaking 2350, target 2400. Don't chase highs; if you enter at this level, a pullback to 2260 will be hard to hold. Sell high if rebound meets resistance at 2320-2350, stop loss 2380, target 2260-2220.
Swing traders:
Wait for daily volume to confirm above 2350 before entering, target 2400-2500, don't get shaken out by stop-loss hunting. If ETF outflows slow + Citi target is accepted by the market, buy in directly.
Long-term believers:
Build base positions gradually at 2200-2250, stop loss 2100. If it breaks 2200 with volume, wait for 2000-2100 to buy more. Target 3000-3500 by 2027, betting on upgrade implementation + ETF inflows + macro easing. Add more only after a real breakout and hold above 2350.
ETH now is like ETH in 2020—
99% of people cursed it as "slow, expensive, and useless," then DeFi Summer came and it went from 100 to 4000.
$BTC$ETH$ZEC
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