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October 26 - November 1 Global Macro Guidance — Fed + PCE Data Pricing in December Rate Hike, AI Giants Face Profitability Test, Super Pricing Week Arrives! If last week’s market discussion was about the probability of an October rate hike being postponed to December, this week’s core argument becomes more complex, focusing on three directions: a, how the Fed defines no rate hike in October — is it a pause? Or a dovish shift? b, which will be the key driver for deciding a December rate hike: oil prices, GDP, or PCE macro data? c, AI giants’ earnings reports vs. macro pressure entering the second week — can this week’s earnings reports from the giants reverse the situation? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Simply put, this week is a super week where policy + inflation + growth + AI profitability + global central banks + geopolitical energy all converge, and I believe the focus should be on three main lines: First main line — no rate hike in October becomes the default, is the expectation of a December rate hike locked in, and will there be further hikes in the future? 1. As of now, the probability of a December rate hike has risen to around 72.4%, entering the preliminary pricing stage. 2. In the early hours of October 28 — October FOMC meeting + Waller’s speech, the focus is not on no rate hike in October, but on what policies are being laid out to pave the way for a December hike: a. Will inflation risks and continued inflation rise be emphasized? Will inflation expectations be raised? b. How is the energy shock evaluated? If Waller explicitly acknowledges concerns about oil prices affecting commodities, transportation, corporate costs, and inflation expectations, then a December rate hike