PONS at $0.28, would you still buy it?
Dropped from 0.97 to 0.28, a 71% plunge, everyone in the group is shouting for it to go to zero, but a single integrated message from Robinhood bounced it back to 0.30 within 15 minutes. Is it a dead cat bounce or the last dance of the shovel sellers?
Some in the group are showing profits from short positions, others ask, "Can we still hold?" The 24-hour trading volume ranges from 33 million to 42 million, with a turnover rate of 22%—chips are being fiercely exchanged, but the price hasn't collapsed. On the surface: down 71% from ATH, down 45-50% in the past month, sentiment in the meme/launchpad sector has cooled off since the September frenzy. But on October 28, after Robinhood Wallet's integrated message, it surged to 0.30, rising 15-25% before retreating.
First thing: A 71% drop doesn't mean the project is dead; it means the narrative has cooled off.
Back in September, Binance Alpha launch, perpetuals launch, Coinbase spot listing, and a 30% supply burn pushed sentiment directly to 0.97. Now the hype has faded, but the protocol is still running: 80% of protocol fees are automatically TWAP repurchased and burned PONS, with about 672 million circulating, close to total supply. The price dropped 71%, but buyback and burn haven't stopped.
DEX volume over 30 days has declined from the September peak. No matter how good the deflation mechanism is, if no one mints tokens, deflation is just lonely.
Second thing: It's not Robinhood's own token; it's a shovel seller on Robinhood Chain.
Many get excited just hearing Robinhood. Wake up: PONS is a non-custodial, permissionless launchpad on Robinhood Chain (an Arbitrum tech L2 focusing on tokenized stocks/RWA), not an official Robinhood-issued coin. Users create fixed supply ERC-20 tokens on it, trade via bonding curves, and graduate to Uniswap v4.
On October 29, there was news that PONS will support more tokens on Robinhood Chain; the narrative isn't dead, it just shifted from "get rich quick" to "waiting for the wind."
Third thing: The technicals have reached a critical point to watch closely.
Support: 0.265-0.27 (recent lows), 0.25-0.26 (stronger), 0.22-0.24 (if broken, watch closely)
Resistance: 0.29-0.30 (yesterday's high), 0.31-0.32, 0.35+
On October 28, it broke out of a short-term descending wedge with increased volume but failed to hold 0.30, falling back to 0.28. RSI fell from overbought to neutral short-term. Perpetual open interest and funding rates show active speculation; wild volatility is normal.
0.30 has hit the resistance twice. The third time, will it break through or get pushed back?
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
- 80% fee buyback and burn, deflation mechanism is real
- Robinhood Chain narrative + October 28 integration catalyst
- Funding rate slightly positive, bulls have a slight edge
- 71% drop from ATH, oversold rebound demand exists
On the other side:
- Anonymous team, reliant on a single chain ecosystem
- Launchpad sentiment cooled from September peak
- Failed to hold 0.30 twice, psychological pressure huge
- BTC weak near 80k, market oscillation draining liquidity
Trading strategy
Short-term (1-3 days):
Lightly buy in batches at 0.27-0.275, strict stop loss below 0.265. Target 0.29-0.31, partial take profit. If volume breaks through 0.30 and holds, add positions. If rebound is weak or breaks below 0.265, lightly short with target 0.25, stop loss above 0.285. Leverage ≤5-10x, single trade risk ≤1-2% of total capital.
Mid-term (1-4 weeks):
Wait for 0.30 to hold + market stabilization, target 0.35-0.40; if it breaks 0.25, further downside possible. Build positions in batches, avoid all-in at once.
PONS now is like the shovel sellers in every cycle—
The most stable in a gold rush are the shovel sellers, but when shovels don't sell, they're the first to be sold as scrap.
$BTC$ETH$PONS
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