Waking up this morning, the most striking thing on the market was the heavy blow to the shorts. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $132 million, with shorts accounting for 71.31% (2.5 times that of longs). BTC, ETH, and SOL short liquidations dominated absolutely, with short sellers collectively harvested around 80,000.
However, prices did not surge violently. BTC is at 81,465, up 0.93%, ETH at 2,369, up 1.03%, and SOL at 102.5, up 1.67%. The moderate gains indicate this round of liquidation is more like shorts passively shrinking rather than an attack by incremental funds. The liquidation heatmap shows that 82,000 above BTC is a dense short liquidation zone, while the defense below 80,000 is relatively weak. ETH is pressured at 2,360, with a thick short wall above 2,400 and dense long leverage below 2,300. SOL’s critical point is the 100 mark.
My view: short liquidations do not equal a reversal. The FOMC is already priced in; the real variables are the December rate hike path and the data at the end of the month. Focus closely on BTC 82,000 (the short squeeze confirmation level) and ETH 2,400 (a tough resistance for the bulls). Strategically, do not chase shorts or highs; wait for a pullback to 79,300–80,000 to stabilize and enter lightly. Be cautious of a secondary drop if 82,000 meets resistance. Keep leverage within 5x, prioritizing break-even. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
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