Looking back at Google's earnings report, although it wasn't outstanding, why did the stock price "crash"?
Reviewing Google's earnings report, although not excellent, why did the stock price "crash"? In this Monday's macro minutes, I clearly outlined four key factors to watch for the three major cloud providers: revenue + AI capital expenditure + free cash flow + future guidance. For Google itself, there are five key factors to watch: revenue + AI capital expenditure + free cash flow + future guidance + Google Cloud. So what answers did Google's earnings report provide? Revenue: Slightly below expectations, not bad, but the result is problematic; absolute growth is strong, but market expectations are stronger, slightly below expectations, mainly due to advertising revenue being slightly below expectations. AI capital expenditure: The company continues to maintain high capital expenditure, investing 200 billion yuan for the full year. This clarifies the demand validation logic for the entire AI infrastructure chain in data centers upstream, including Nvidia, Broadcom, HBM, optical modules, servers, and power. Free cash flow: -9.1 billion, negative free cash flow in Q2 this year, capital expenditure is too large, revenue cannot keep up. #Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations. Google Cloud: Still the strongest data in the earnings report, 30.71 billion growth with a synchronized increase of 103%, more than 55% of which will be recognized as revenue in the next 24 months. This data proves that Google's AI infrastructure has begun to generate large-scale revenue. Future guidance: Capital expenditure will significantly increase in 2027, TPU systems will see significant volume growth in 2027, but due to tight AI computing power supply, Google has started using third-party computing
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