美股盘后到亚盘上午阶段，人工智能板交易分化交易，受谷歌财报意外走弱影响导致云厂商企业开始被审查ROI，而上游产业的AI半导体则继续延续昨天海力士的财报提振
既然谷歌财报意外走弱，那么今天的股市节奏就要稍微调整，亚盘到欧盘时间AI交易可能会继续分化，存储半导体持续走向，云厂商以及下游AI商业应用企业会遭受短期质疑。
欧盘收盘前需要注意AI交易情绪走弱，主要是今晚20：30 美国Q3 GDP 与9月PCE数据公布，凌晨沃什讲话明确以数据引导Fed政策，对通胀保持鹰派强硬目标观点，核心PCE一旦符合预期走强将会进一步提升12月加息概率，短期会让AI交易情绪受到压制
我原本的预期是云厂商财报整体走强对抗加息高利率带来的宏观压力，目前谷歌财报既然出现意外就要做请问调整，短期美股信心轻微受挫对抗宏观压力的能力就变弱了，更何况目前Brent 依旧处于110美元阶段，大环境上本身就具备一层通胀压力
至于美股AI交易信心，能否修复谷歌带来的不良反应要看今晚凌晨亚马逊财报能否提振市场，如果亚马逊财报可以修复信心，关于谷歌的担忧下周很快会被消化掉！#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
Cato_KT
Market dynamics and subsequent trends after Waller's speech:
1. The CME December rate hike probability has increased to 84.6%, basically fully priced in. However, since the market had fully expected a hawkish pause tonight, the short-term probability increase has little impact on the financial markets. Going forward, the actual and nominal interest rates' pressure on the financial markets will need to be observed.
2. In risk markets, the hawkish pause expectation has materialized. "Sell the news" or "the boot has dropped" both apply. After the negative news, the market has actually loosened in the short term. Next, the risk market narrative will return to US stock earnings reports. Later, Microsoft and Google earnings will be released after the US market close. The market had strong expectations, so the US stock market is expected to close higher due to earnings expectations!
3. The December rate hike probability caused a slight rise in 10Y and 30Y yields, while 2Y yields fell short term due to the expectation being priced in. The US dollar is temporarily stable, gold is slightly pressured, and gold continues to bear the burden of interest rate suppression.
4. Waller emphasized his determination on inflation tonight and clearly stated that the Fed cannot allow inflation to transmit a second time through oil prices to the PCE side. The September PCE will be released Thursday night. If core inflation and service inflation rise, it will further increase the probability of a December rate hike. At that time, the US stock market will face a confrontation between earnings optimism and macro rate hike pressure.
5. Regarding market rhythm, if Microsoft and Google report strong earnings at the US market close, Asian and European stock markets will be boosted. Then, before the data release around 20:30 in the evening, the market will be relatively cautious. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
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