This week in the OKX Planet "Play to Earn US Earnings Season" prediction event, I'll just give my answers directly:
SanDisk: Yes, most optimistic.
Microsoft: Yes, leaning towards a slight beat.
Google: Yes, but watch out for high expectations.
Amazon: Leaning Yes, the lowest confidence among the four.
To be clear: this is a judgment on earnings, anyway it's all played with points, focusing on experience and fun!
What I like about SanDisk is the NAND price increase passing through to profits, combined with enterprise SSD demand, profit elasticity may be greater than revenue elasticity.
But SK Hynix's HBM strength doesn't mean SanDisk automatically wins; ultimately, it depends on SanDisk's own gross margin and next quarter guidance.
For Microsoft, I look at Azure growth and AI commercialization; beyond cloud business, enterprise software revenue provides support. I lean towards a slight earnings beat; whether the stock price rises depends on whether new revenue can keep up with capital expenditures and depreciation.
For Google, I consider search ad resilience, Cloud growth, and profitability. The business has room to beat expectations, but the market already has high expectations for cloud growth. Even if the report is good, it has to be better than what everyone expects.
Amazon leans Yes, but AWS growth, retail profit margin, and investment intensity must be considered together. Revenue beating expectations may not offset concerns from cash flow pressure.
My ranking of confidence in earnings beats: SanDisk > Microsoft > Google > Amazon; stock price performance will focus on guidance and whether gains can be maintained after positive news.
Everyone, submit your answers too, especially SanDisk—do you choose Yes or No?
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