On the Eve of the FOMC: Divergences Among Order Books, Whales, and Institutional Funds
With the October FOMC approaching, market competition is heating up. The mainstream expectation remains that interest rates will stay unchanged, but stronger PMI and inflation data have reduced the certainty of a pause in rate hikes. Funds are paying closer attention to the Federal Reserve's statements and the potential for a rate hike in December.
Regarding order books, Binance perpetual BTC has placed buy orders totaling about $8.54 million near $81,000, with near-term buy orders around $53.77 million and sell orders about $43.59 million. However, these orders can be canceled and do not equate to executed buy orders. If prices dip, there may still be stop-loss and liquidation pressure below.
On-chain, a long-term address that initially accumulated about 200,000 ETH at an average price of approximately $80.97 recently transferred 1,000 ETH to Kraken, worth about $2.4 million. This address has a history of partially cashing out at highs, but this time it appears to be a longer-term portfolio adjustment. Whether it continues to transfer out or execute trades will be key to judging real selling pressure.
Institutionally, Franklin Templeton continues to advance tokenized money market fund deployments on the XRP Ledger. The total supply of the sgBENJI token has increased from 48 million to about 193 million and has been consolidated into a single wallet, indicating that institutional funds are still increasing allocations within the XRPL ecosystem.
Currently, bullish and bearish signals are intertwined: BTC order books show support but unstable backing; ETH whale transfers bring potential selling pressure; and the XRPL ecosystem continues to attract institutional capital inflows.
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