Brothers, this morning the market looks like nothing's happening, prices barely moving, but I watched the volume closely, and the hidden signals are all in the volume. Let me explain slowly!
📊 Macro
With the Fed decision coming early Thursday morning, the market has already pulled back: total network turnover dropped to only 130.7 billion, down 22.76% in one day, but open interest still rose 0.39%, topping 140.7 billion. No one is trading, but positions remain—this is what waiting for the shoe to drop looks like. Even more contradictory, volume shrank by over 20%, but liquidations actually rose 8.49%. No new orders are opening, old positions are still getting cut.
📰 Events
BTC is hovering around 80,850, gains basically zero; ETH is grinding at 2,357, down 0.82%; SOL is around 102, up 0.01%. All three coins are basically flat, combined price changes less than 1%, surface calm. Open interest: BTC at 54.097 billion, ETH at 30.33 billion, SOL at 6.288 billion, positions haven't fled.
⚠️ Concerns
But liquidations haven't calmed down: 546 million liquidated in one day across the network, longs account for 464 million, 85% of liquidations are longs getting cut, 118,352 people out. BTC longs make up 88.9%, ETH longs 84.7%, the first to get swept on the drop are the bulls.
💰 Positions
My judgment has two layers:
① With volume shrinking like this, chasing up or down is just giving money to the market;
② Positions not leaving means the big directional bets are still there, wait for the shoe to drop and then see if volume returns.
If volume doesn't come back, I won't move; if volume returns, I'll follow. Going against volume is just giving away money.
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