On October 19, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $526.7 million.
On October 20, it was $23.2 million.
Within one day, a drop of 95.6%.
BTC is now stuck oscillating between 81,000 and 82,000, unable to reach 85,000 upwards, and unwilling to break below 80,000 downwards.
This is not a market trend. Everyone is waiting for an answer that hasn't happened yet.
Glassnode clearly defines BTC's current situation as a box between $80,000 and $87,000.
The lower edge of the box at $80,000 is not just a round number.
It corresponds to the average holding cost of ETFs and listed companies.
To translate: above $80,000, institutions are still showing profits on paper. Below $80,000, institutions start to feel the pain.
Buyers are re-accumulating near $80,000, but at a much smaller scale than the peak. Sellers? There are order book sell orders and liquidation clusters stacked at $85,000 and $87,000.
BTC now is like a mouse trapped in a cage. $80,000 is the floor, $85,000 is the ceiling. Whoever breaks first defines the direction.
Three variables determine which way the cage opens.
Variable one: the daily close at $80,000.
Not the wick, but the close. A wick dipping below $80,000 and then pulling back doesn't count. If the daily close is below $80,000, sentiment will jump from "wait and see" directly to "panic," and the average holders of ETFs and treasuries will all enter loss territory. The next stop is the True Market Mean.
Variable two: oil prices.
Brent is currently around $108 to $110, with Saudi attacks and ongoing US-Iran risks pushing oil prices to the highest since May this year. US officials have hinted that after the midterm elections, military strike plans against Iran are already on the table.
Every day oil stays high, the expectation for rate hikes suppresses BTC's rebound for another day.
Variable three: the October 28 FOMC.
Reuters survey: 94% of economists expect no change in October, but 100% expect a rate hike in December.
The market has already priced in this scenario. So the real risk is not "whether to hike," but whether there is an unexpected phrase in the statement. If Waller casually says "inflation is improving," the market will loosen itself; if he says "action must be taken in December," this cage will be smashed downward immediately.
First, between $80,000 and $85,000, do not chase the rally or panic sell.
Near $80,000, watch if the buy side is strong. A strong buy side is the defense at the lower edge of the box; a weak buy side means the next stop is the long liquidity sweep zone at $79,000.
Near $85,000, watch if the sell pressure is strong. Jiang Zhuoer is shorting at $84,650 with a stop loss at $85,500 — this is not to tell you to copy the trade, but to give you a reference anchor point for when the short logic fails. If it breaks above $85,500, it means the sell pressure at the upper edge of the box has been eaten up, and shorts should admit their mistake.
Second, before the FOMC, do not heavily bet on direction.
ETF funds dropped sharply from $500 million to $20 million, then returned to $528 million on the third day. This kind of fluctuation is not a trend but chaotic position swings before an event. Betting on this swing is not a judgment but luck.
Third, keep a bullet in the chamber.
If it really falls to around $79,000 to sweep liquidity, that will be after the FOMC. Filling your position now means you hand your chips to luck before the answer is revealed.
Before the FOMC, the market is waiting for an answer that doesn't exist.
Economists have already priced in no change in October and a hike in December. All your short-term trades now are essentially guessing which words Waller will use.
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