The mediation plan has been released, the U.S. side has approved it, and the Iranian side has "initially agreed."
So what next?
Neither government has publicly confirmed it.
Officials involved in the negotiations said: reports about an imminent agreement are incorrect.
Currently, the U.S. and Iran are neither in "escalating war" nor "peace in sight."
It is a stalemate.
On October 20, the Iranian president made it clear in front of the Pakistani mediators: the lifting of U.S. sanctions is a prerequisite for any negotiation. Increasing blockade measures while calling for dialogue won’t work. The so-called compromise plan—unfreezing $6 billion in asset interest in exchange for nuclear facility inspections—has "been approved by the U.S. side and initially agreed upon by the Iranian side," but neither government has publicly confirmed this, and officials directly deny an "imminent agreement."
Supply is indeed returning. The volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to about 82% of pre-conflict levels, and freight rates have fallen about 13% from their peak.
But the risk premium has not retreated. Brent crude touched $112 intraday and closed at $108.79.
Supply returns, but the premium remains. This combination itself is a signal.
This situation is the least friendly for the crypto market.
If negotiations break down, oil prices surge to $120, inflation is confirmed, the Fed raises rates, and BTC plunges—the direction is clear, at least you know which side to take.
If negotiations break through, oil prices fall back, tightening expectations ease, and BTC rebounds—the direction is also clear.
The most frustrating is now: oil prices fluctuate repeatedly between $108 and $112, each bullish candle shouts "breakout coming," each bearish candle shouts "crash coming."
BTC is the same. 82,500 is the short-term lifeline, and 87,000 above is a strong resistance. Wintermute’s exact words: the current box consolidation pattern is unlikely to continue, and the October 28 FOMC meeting may be a turning point.
But before the turning point, it will grind you down.
Why is "indirect negotiations" more dangerous than "negotiation breakdown?"
If it breaks down, you cut losses.
If an agreement is imminent, you chase longs.
Indirect negotiations mean: any headline can be true or can be disproved at any time. Today "plan approved" pulls a bullish candle, tomorrow "officials deny imminent agreement" smashes a bearish candle. And you are always half a step behind.
The middle ground doesn’t kill, it just harvests.
Negotiations are still on the table.
Don’t put your position on the edge of the table.
The middle ground’s volatility cures all kinds of "this time for sure."
$BTC$CL$BZ #USIranNegotiationsStillDivided, Hormuz transport volume rebounds
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