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September CPI brings more rate hikes, with rate hike timing swinging between October and December. Macro pressure is gradually increasing. How will the US stock market, US bonds, and #Bitcoin perform? First, looking at the bond market: after the data release, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields rose simultaneously, then slightly retreated. The 2Y yield rose the most sharply, initially indicating a strong hawkish market expectation for tonight's CPI, with increased rate hike and inflation expectations. The subsequent retreat is a technical pullback after the short-term data shock. Continue to monitor the 10Y and 30Y trends. If the 10Y and 30Y continue to fall, it means the Fed is more hawkish but long-term inflation is controllable. If the 10Y and 30Y continue to rise, beware that the market is redefining a higher long-term neutral rate, and inflation concerns are more persistent. If so, risk assets will face more obvious pressure. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Next, looking at the US stock market: so far, large US banks' earnings reports are optimistic, proving a strong AI capital supply side. ASML's earnings are strong, and the AI industry narrative is healthy and stable, which should have driven gains but was offset and even clearly pressured by tonight's CPI data bearishness, mainly because long-term interest rates remain high under the macro backdrop, amplifying the bearish impact. Coming up, this week still has TSMC's earnings report on Thursday. Although TSMC's earnings expectations are good, it only proves the AI narrative's stability and health. Reversing the trend this week looks very difficult, as macro pressure dominates this week. As for #Bitcoin's trend, it has maintained around the 4-hour MA120 for the first two days this week