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STRK unlocks 127 million tokens monthly for 6 consecutive months, with frequent positive news, yet reasons for easy downward adjustment remain analyzed Core summary: Unlocking 127 million tokens monthly is equivalent to 6 consecutive rounds of targeted issuance, continuously increasing circulating supply; the positive news belongs to long-term narratives, while the unlocking selling pressure is a tangible supply increase at present. The positive outlook is future expectation, while selling pressure is the realized monthly sell-off, making it difficult for expectations to immediately offset the ongoing dilution pressure. 1. Supply side: 6 consecutive "new share issuances" continuously dilute existing holders' equity 1. For six consecutive months, 127 million STRK tokens are released on the 15th of each month, totaling 762 million newly circulating tokens, accounting for about 10.3% of the current circulating supply, equivalent to six rounds of small-scale new share listings. Traditional stock markets see one-time private placements depress valuations, but STRK’s monthly phased releases represent a long-term continuous supply shock, not a one-time event. 2. Chip structure differentiation: The unlocked portion includes a large amount of low-cost tokens held by early contributors with very low holding costs; once the price rebounds, there is a willingness to sell and realize profits; although private investors have costs, some institutions also choose to gradually reduce holdings and take profits after market rebounds. 3. The essence of token unlocking: Lock-up is only a temporary freeze; after unlocking, the number of freely tradable tokens in the market increases. When new buying demand cannot keep up with the increase in supply, the value per token is diluted. Even with strong fundamentals and technical narratives, supply-demand imbalance suppresses price. 2. Positive news belongs to long-term narratives, difficult to convert into immediate buying pressure in the short term 1. Market-promoted positives: independent L1 upgrade, native quantum resistance, QSB quantum-secure BTC, BTCFi ecosystem, privacy pools—all are future expectations, mostly without large-scale commercial revenue or user base realization yet. Positive stories attract long-term funds, but long-term investors rarely enter with large sums at once; they mostly accumulate slowly on dips, making it hard to absorb the potential monthly selling pressure of over 100 million tokens at once. 2. Time lag in positive realization: L1 transformation and quantum resistance technology implementation are scheduled for 2027, coinciding with this unlocking cycle. Before these achievements materialize, positives remain mostly expectations, making it hard to continuously generate massive new capital. 3. Positives are easily front-run: Each positive news release triggers short-term buying, and low-cost unlocked tokens take advantage of the rally window to sell, creating a "positive news equals sell window" effect, causing prices to fall after the positive is realized. 3. Market trading psychology: Clear unlocking schedule overhead, bulls dare not continuously push prices up 1. The entire market clearly knows large unlocks occur on the 15th of each month, an openly verifiable schedule. Major funds and whales won’t actively push prices up continuously; if they do, low-cost holders will concentrate selling, trapping the pushers. 2. Formation of a "rebound ceiling effect": Each positive-driven rebound rises to a certain range, then the market anticipates unlocking selling pressure and reduces positions early. Selling pressure appears with slight gains, making sustained major rallies difficult; oscillating downward trends become normal. 3. Expectations priced in advance: The market often declines before the unlock date to digest the negative impact, not necessarily waiting for the unlock day to drop sharply. Even if a short rebound occurs on the unlock day, the expectation of next month’s unlock will suppress the market again. 4. Overall market environment amplifies supply pressure, positives alone can’t support 1. If the crypto market is generally weak and funds are risk-averse, overall incremental capital is insufficient. Even if STRK has continuous positives, without new capital to absorb selling pressure, the negative impact of increased supply is magnified. 2. Sector rotation: Crypto funds rotate quickly; the hype around quantum resistance and L2 upgrades fluctuates with market sentiment. Once the hype fades, relying solely on fundamental narratives makes it difficult to continuously attract funds to absorb monthly unlocked tokens.