Last night, the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve, Williams, said something that caused gold and U.S. stocks to rebound, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields both softened.
What did he say? He said: By 2027, there might be no need to raise interest rates anymore.
This is the first time a Federal Reserve official has openly discussed "when to stop".
Williams, President of the New York Fed, the Federal Reserve's "third-ranking official," holds a permanent voting right on the FOMC.
In an in-depth interview with Bloomberg, he said two things: one hawkish, one dovish—
The hawkish one: "I have not changed my view that one more rate hike might be appropriate."
The dovish one: "I don't think I have any reason at this time to believe we need to do more after that."
In plain language: one more hike this year, then stop.
This is the first time the Federal Reserve's core decision-making body has publicly defined the "end point" for rate hikes.
Before Williams spoke, the two-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points. After his speech, it reversed and fell to 4.792%.
CME data: The probability of the Fed holding steady in October is 77.3%, with only a 22.7% chance of a 25 basis point hike. But by December, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike jumps to 68.7%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 19.1%.
What does this mean? The market has basically decided: likely no change in October, one hike in December, then done.
Williams rewrote the market's previous expectation of "possibly two more hikes in 2027" to "possibly none at all."
But the Fed is not united.
Before and after Williams spoke, two other officials also voiced opinions—
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: "I'm increasingly worried this is purely old-fashioned demand overheating."
Richmond Fed President Barkin: "Taking action is reasonable in the face of persistent inflation."
Together, these three represent a "hawk—dove—hawk" debate. Interestingly, Goolsbee and Barkin do not have voting rights this year, while Williams, who holds permanent voting rights, is the most moderate of the three.
The truly influential person is dovish. The market will not overlook this detail.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $83,000, holding the key support at $82,500. Heavy selling pressure exists above $84,000. The dollar index rose to 102.57, a new high since April 2025.
But Williams' words gave the market a signal: the interest rate peak is approaching.
For BTC, an asset that generates no interest, the darkest phase is when rate hike expectations are strongest. When "one more hike this year then stop" becomes consensus, the end of liquidity tightening is no longer far away.
Williams' words cannot be fully trusted. Fed officials' "forward guidance" can change faster than flipping a page.
But he gave the market something—a finish line.
Do you know what causes the most anxiety? Not the rate hikes themselves, but not knowing how many more hikes there will be or when they will end. Now someone has stepped forward to say: one this year, maybe none next year.
Even just a hint is enough to let the market breathe a sigh of relief.
For the crypto market, surviving the last rate hike this year is dawn.
$BTC$ETH$SOL#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
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