美股盯盘日记
美股盯盘日记
美股盯盘，盯盘美股 持续更新，把握机会 新增关注：韩股、港股等
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#英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注
Currently, many big names in the tech circle and capital markets have come forward to support Jensen Huang:
· Elon Musk: Agrees with the viewpoint of the Sequoia Capital partner, believing that although Jensen Huang made a mistake, it does not negate his important contributions to the US AI industry.
· Donald Trump: Says Jensen Huang is a good person and wishes him all the best, but does not know the full details of the incident.
· NVIDIA Board of Directors: States continued confidence in Jensen Huang and the management team but will investigate whether the incident involves company security and governance issues.
The discussion now is no longer about Jensen Huang's private life, but whether this storm will remain a personal matter or further affect NVIDIA's operations and market confidence, especially in terms of information security.
What was originally just a personal controversy involving Jensen Huang has now triggered concerns about information security, congressional investigations, and chip export regulations.
As a core player in the AI market, if the incident further affects management stability or chip export policies, the impact may extend beyond NVDA.
Will this be a short-term emotional shock, or will it trigger a new black swan event in the AI sector?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
【One plunge, ten thousand stocks rise】
Trump lost the midterm elections, yet the market actually went up.
US stocks rebounded, A-shares rose, gold strengthened, and oil prices plummeted.
The market has finally started to reprice.
The Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress means Trump will face more checks and balances on tariffs, fiscal, and foreign policies.
Especially regarding the Iran war
Previously, high oil prices pushed up inflation, suppressing rate cut expectations.
Now that the Republicans lost, the market is starting to bet that the US may accelerate efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
Oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, and US stocks naturally have a reason to rebound.
But the most interesting is gold.
Risk appetite rises, yet gold also goes up.
This shows the market is betting on policy easing on one hand, while still worrying about the dollar, fiscal, and geopolitical risks on the other.
This round of rebound may not mean risks have disappeared, but that the market is starting to reprice a Trump administration under checks and balances
Hynix's latest earnings report is a bit awkward, with both revenue and profit hitting record highs, but only meeting market expectations.
AI chip demand is indeed strong, but the market appetite has grown even larger. Good performance is no longer enough; it has to exceed expectations.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元
美股盯盘日记
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The earnings report is coming soon, let's review the recent trends in the AI industry.
Previously, the market was concerned about who could acquire more GPUs and build more data centers; now the question has shifted to: after investing so much money, when will the returns come?
First, on the AI model side:
DeepSeek continues to optimize inference efficiency, and open-source technology lowers the barrier to use. But will cost reductions stimulate more demand, or will they compress the profit margins of model companies?
Looking at Anthropic, as the IPO progresses, the commercialization capabilities of AI model companies will be tested by the market. Can rapidly growing revenues cover the huge computing power investments and support high valuations?
CoreWeave is a typical case of computing power infrastructure. Although it has long-term orders, high debt, financing costs, and construction risks have led the market to question whether these orders can truly convert into profits and cash flow.
Finally, back to SK Hynix:
As a key supplier of HBM, this time, besides revenue and profit, attention should be paid to HBM4 mass production, long-term orders, and expansion pace.
If downstream continues to increase investment, HBM demand will still be supported; but if capital expenditure slows, upstream may also face order pressure.
The current issue may not be whether AI has a future, but whether the profitability of the entire industry chain can keep pace with the speed of capital investment.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The earnings report is coming soon, let's review the recent trends in the AI industry.
Previously, the market was concerned about who could acquire more GPUs and build more data centers; now the question has shifted to: after investing so much money, when will the returns come?
First, on the AI model side:
DeepSeek continues to optimize inference efficiency, and open-source technology lowers the barrier to use. But will cost reductions stimulate more demand, or will they compress the profit margins of model companies?
Looking at Anthropic, as the IPO progresses, the commercialization capabilities of AI model companies will be tested by the market. Can rapidly growing revenues cover the huge computing power investments and support high valuations?
CoreWeave is a typical case of computing power infrastructure. Although it has long-term orders, high debt, financing costs, and construction risks have led the market to question whether these orders can truly convert into profits and cash flow.
Finally, back to SK Hynix:
As a key supplier of HBM, this time, besides revenue and profit, attention should be paid to HBM4 mass production, long-term orders, and expansion pace.
If downstream continues to increase investment, HBM demand will still be supported; but if capital expenditure slows, upstream may also face order pressure.
The current issue may not be whether AI has a future, but whether the profitability of the entire industry chain can keep pace with the speed of capital investment.
美股盯盘日记
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
One of the highlights this week: SK Hynix's earnings report
Last quarter's figures were extraordinary, for the same reason: strong AI demand, continuous price increases for HBM, DRAM, and NAND, with Hynix as a core supplier to Nvidia fully benefiting from the boom.
However, after the Q2 earnings release, the stock price plunged sharply, simply because market expectations were too high.
This time, Q3 requires more caution, especially focusing on three aspects:
· Can HBM4 mass production continue to boost profits?
· Will the price increases for memory chips continue, or are they already near the cycle peak?
· How much is Hynix planning to distribute to shareholders?
Hynix is considering dividend payments totaling about 16 trillion won, roughly 80 billion RMB. It previously announced a 40 trillion won share buyback and cancellation plan and intends to use over 50% of free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for shareholder returns.
If this performance hits a new high, combined with massive dividends and buybacks, it should be able to attract capital inflows again
Oh wow, finally some movement
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
This is not just about Anthropic anymore; it feels more like a public exam for the entire AI industry
In the past, everyone was betting on the future of AI, but now it's finally time to see how profitable this business really is
Just waiting for next month
PANews
Anthropic publicly files S-1 document, plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT"
According to the US SEC filing, AI company Anthropic, PBC has publicly submitted an S-1 registration statement, applying for its Class A common stock to be listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, with the stock ticker "ANT". The lead underwriters include Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The filing has not yet disclosed the number of shares to be issued or the price range.
Financial data shows Anthropic's revenue for 2025 is $4.585 billion, and for 2024 is $386 million; revenue for the first half of 2026 is $16.286 billion, compared to $1.163 billion in the same period last year.
The net loss for the first half of 2026 is $80.748 billion, of which losses from changes in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFE instruments amount to $72.388 billion.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
One of the highlights this week: SK Hynix's earnings report
Last quarter's figures were extraordinary, for the same reason: strong AI demand, continuous price increases for HBM, DRAM, and NAND, with Hynix as a core supplier to Nvidia fully benefiting from the boom.
However, after the Q2 earnings release, the stock price plunged sharply, simply because market expectations were too high.
This time, Q3 requires more caution, especially focusing on three aspects:
· Can HBM4 mass production continue to boost profits?
· Will the price increases for memory chips continue, or are they already near the cycle peak?
· How much is Hynix planning to distribute to shareholders?
Hynix is considering dividend payments totaling about 16 trillion won, roughly 80 billion RMB. It previously announced a 40 trillion won share buyback and cancellation plan and intends to use over 50% of free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for shareholder returns.
If this performance hits a new high, combined with massive dividends and buybacks, it should be able to attract capital inflows again
Previously, it was considered possibly a conspiracy theory, but now that a special committee has already been established, they are also researching the possibility of a merger.
Especially with the financial reports of both companies already published, it makes the discussion even more substantial.
#特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正
SpaceX:
· Revenue of $14.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 161%
· AI business revenue of $7.56 billion
· Capital expenditure of about $19.6 billion
Tesla:
· Revenue of $28.05 billion, basically flat
· Net profit of $787 million, down 43% year-on-year
· Free cash flow of $1.53 billion
SpaceX is growing rapidly but is indeed burning cash. Although Tesla's profitability is under pressure, at least its automotive business continues to contribute cash flow.
If the two companies merge, AI chips, robotics, energy, aerospace, and computing power businesses could be integrated together.
It does sound very promising.
But one question remains: who merges into whom?
One current proposal is for SpaceX to acquire Tesla.
This would mean Tesla shareholders might have to exchange their shares for SpaceX stock and take on more risk related to aerospace and AI infrastructure investments.
SpaceX is expected to have capital expenditures of $35 to $40 billion in Q4.
What’s more curious is whether Musk is consolidating his business empire or trying to get Tesla shareholders to pay for SpaceX’s AI ambitions together?
美股盯盘日记
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
A conspiracy theory: Is Musk playing a big game recently?
Looking at recent events together, it's quite interesting.
Two main threads:
· SpaceX and Tesla merger?
· Musk diving deeper into 🇺🇸 politics again?
① Technical collaboration → Merger expectations
October 15: Tesla reintroduced the second-generation Roadster, highlighting technical cooperation with SpaceX.
Mid-October: Barclays suggested that Tesla and SpaceX might merge by the end of the year, integrating AI, robotics, energy, and aerospace businesses.
② Capital layout → Political influence
October 19: Musk proposed a plan to gift SpaceX stock to children across the U.S., involving amounts possibly reaching tens of billions of dollars.
Coincidentally, this plan is linked to the U.S. government's Trump Accounts children's investment account policy.
More interestingly, according to media reports, Musk discussed related arrangements with the Trump administration as early as this summer.
③ October 20 to 21: Earnings report relay
SpaceX and Tesla successively released their Q3 earnings reports.
Connecting these events:
Technical collaboration → Merger expectations → Public shareholding → Earnings release
On one side, the business landscape may be heading toward integration; on the other, building interest ties with more American families through equity.
Is Musk hyping up the earnings report, or preparing to extend his business influence further into the political realm?
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
A conspiracy theory: Is Musk playing a big game recently?
Looking at recent events together, it's quite interesting.
Two main threads:
· SpaceX and Tesla merger?
· Musk diving deeper into 🇺🇸 politics again?
① Technical collaboration → Merger expectations
October 15: Tesla reintroduced the second-generation Roadster, highlighting technical cooperation with SpaceX.
Mid-October: Barclays suggested that Tesla and SpaceX might merge by the end of the year, integrating AI, robotics, energy, and aerospace businesses.
② Capital layout → Political influence
October 19: Musk proposed a plan to gift SpaceX stock to children across the U.S., involving amounts possibly reaching tens of billions of dollars.
Coincidentally, this plan is linked to the U.S. government's Trump Accounts children's investment account policy.
More interestingly, according to media reports, Musk discussed related arrangements with the Trump administration as early as this summer.
③ October 20 to 21: Earnings report relay
SpaceX and Tesla successively released their Q3 earnings reports.
Connecting these events:
Technical collaboration → Merger expectations → Public shareholding → Earnings release
On one side, the business landscape may be heading toward integration; on the other, building interest ties with more American families through equity.
Is Musk hyping up the earnings report, or preparing to extend his business influence further into the political realm?
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
While domestic car companies are still debating whether a brake pedal should break or not, Tesla has already evolved into a "flying machine."
The moon is indeed rounder abroad.
Concepts can fly, but financial reports still need to land.
After the market closes on October 21, Tesla will release its Q3 financial report.
The previously disclosed delivery data was quite good.
Q3 deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, production was 464,400 vehicles, and energy storage deployment hit 13.7 GWh.
The delivery volume has already given the market a good answer; now it depends on whether profits can keep up.
After all, selling more cars is one thing, but making more money is another.
If this time the automotive gross margin rebounds, and net profit and cash flow improve simultaneously, then Tesla's financial report will be even more valuable.
Deliveries have exceeded expectations; next, let's see if Tesla can deliver a financial report that also exceeds expectations.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC, the future is so bright it blinds me👀
It used to be said that selling shovels in the AI era was the most profitable, but now it seems the real money might be in making the shovels.
This earnings report is a bit exaggerated:
· Q3 revenue of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%
· Net profit of 763.06 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, setting a record high
· Gross margin of 66.4%, and net margin reaching 51.1%
For every 100 units of revenue earned, more than 51 units become net profit
Major tech giants are competing upfront in AI and chip performance, while TSMC quietly makes money behind the scenes.
More importantly, TSMC not only benefits from the AI dividend but also controls the core capacity of advanced processes and advanced packaging.
· Q4 revenue guidance further raised to 52.3 billion–54.3 billion USD, indicating growth may not be over yet
However, the overall market fell today; earnings growth and stock price performance do not always move in sync.
Short-term market sentiment is hard to predict, but as long as AI giants continue to invest, TSMC, which controls core capacity, remains one of the most stable beneficiaries in this AI race
