美股投资young
美股投资young
美股科技投资者 ai狂热者 分享每日快讯. all in ai
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Brothers who cut losses last Thursday, don't look at the market tonight, it will only make you feel worse.
On November 5th, $SOXX dropped 12.15% in one day, the worst day this year, even worse than June 5th. Before the close that day, the timeline was full of comments like AI bubble burst, data centers to be halted, exactly like the year 2000.
So what happened? In two trading days, the semiconductor index rose from 9011 back to 10034, recovering 80% of that day's loss. On Monday, the S&P rose 2.35%, the Dow gained 1104 points in one day, and the S&P was only 3.4% away from its October all-time high.
Selling at the close that day was like handing over one of the cheapest chips of the year.
I'm not here to mock anyone. Everyone was panicking at that market situation; I myself publicly said during those days that the "final drop" judgment needed to be reconsidered.
But where was the mistake that day? It must be made clear: the Democratic Party's impact was real, regulatory risks were real, but the market priced "possible project delays" all at once as "AI demand disappeared." Delay and order cancellation are two different things, and no one distinguished that day.
Worse than cutting losses was those who leveraged to bottom-fish that day and got washed out the next day. This kind of market kills both bulls and bears; whichever side you bet heavily on, it will punish that side.
Is it safe now? No.
The S&P is only 3.4% below its high, the Nasdaq is still 8.5% below, and $SOXX is nearly 33% below its June high. The broad market has mostly recovered, but semiconductors are still in the pit.
The semiconductor index filled the November 5th gap intraday on Monday but retreated by the close. 10447 and the 20-day moving average are still pressing down, and no one has explained the political issues. $NVDA is still under investigation, and on a day when the sector surged, it actually fell 4.27%.
This is a rebound, not yet a time to relax.
What I've always said is one thing: the worst thing to do on a big drop day is to make decisions.
Don't liquidate at the most panic-stricken moment, and don't chase the rally the day after a big rise. Avoid leverage, don't go all-in, buy good companies in batches when they fall. Looking back at the 2020 pandemic and the 2025 tariff war, they were traps, but only those who survived could wait for the right day.
Did you cut losses, hold on, or bottom-fish that day? Share in the comments.
The most important earnings report to watch this week is not Nvidia, but Applied Materials on 11/12.
The reason is simple. This round of semiconductor sell-off is driven by market fears that if the Democrats take power, data center construction will slow down, and chip manufacturers will be hesitant to expand production. To answer this question, Nvidia's numbers show "how well sales were last quarter," while $AMAT's orders indicate "whether chip manufacturers still dare to spend on capacity expansion."
One looks at the past, the other looks at the future.
The market expects this quarter's revenue to be about $10.3 billion, a 51% year-over-year increase; adjusted EPS of $4.06, compared to $2.17 last year. This expectation is already very high. Yesterday, AMAT rose about 11% along with the sector, indicating some are already betting on it in advance.
I will focus on three areas.
First is management's guidance for next quarter and next year. As long as capital expenditures from customers like TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are not cut, equipment orders won't collapse.
Second is storage customers. HBM and advanced DRAM are expanding production, and expansion requires buying equipment. Storage prices are still rising, making these orders the strongest support in this round.
Third is whether the earnings call mentions any delays in U.S. domestic projects. If the Democratic issue really starts affecting orders, equipment suppliers will be the first to hear about it and will reveal it earlier than Nvidia.
If AMAT's guidance is stable, it provides solid evidence supporting the judgment that "political shocks are just delays, not order cancellations," which is more reliable than any analysis. If they start saying customers are hesitant, then this rebound needs to be reassessed.
I have always grouped this equipment sector with Nvidia and TSMC as the most certain layer in semiconductors. Companies like $AMAT and $LRCX, no matter whose AI chip wins, chips have to be made with their equipment.
No rush before the earnings report. Wait for the numbers, check the guidance, then proceed in batches.
Today, the Asia-Pacific market is very likely to open higher, especially South Korea. Yesterday's rebound in the US stock market was not reflected at all during the day in South Korea.
The time difference needs to be clarified. When South Korea closed on 11/9, the US stock market had not yet opened. The KOSPI closed down 0.81% at 5018.85, the lowest closing price since February. Samsung once rose 3.55% intraday, and Hynix once rose 5.39%, but both almost fully gave back their gains, closing up only 0.64% and 0.35% respectively. Foreign investors have been net sellers for seven consecutive trading days.
Then the US market opened, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 6.85%, $MU up 6.25%, $SNDK up 6.2%, and TSMC ADR up 3.5%. The US-listed Korean ETF $EWY rose 3.7%, and the Japanese ETF $EWJ rose 3.65%, effectively trading this rebound in advance on behalf of Japan and South Korea. Nikkei futures also closed at 60970, significantly higher than the Nikkei's 11/9 daytime close of 58775.
So today's higher open is basically already priced in. What really matters is whether the market can hold after the high open.
The issues with Hynix and Samsung are different.
Hynix is the main supplier of Nvidia's HBM. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 7%, but $NVDA actually fell 4.27%. Storage rose while Nvidia fell, putting Hynix right in the middle. It has dropped more than 30% from its one-month high, so theoretically it has the most room to rebound, but as long as Nvidia's investigation results are not out, it will be difficult for Hynix to rise decisively like Micron.
Samsung faces less pressure; it does not rely entirely on Nvidia's HBM, and ordinary storage price increases affect it more directly. There was also a negative news last week: it was rumored that TSMC is researching 3D DRAM at Nvidia's request. Jefferies' view is that if TSMC really wants to enter storage, it might be as late as 2035, and the technology path and factories would have to start from scratch. This negative news is exaggerated in the short term.
What I care more about is foreign investors. This round of sharp decline in South Korea was driven by foreign investors selling, retail investors selling, and only institutions buying. After today's high open, whether foreign investors continue to sell or stop is more telling than a few points of gains.
If Samsung and Hynix weaken all the way after the high open and close below the opening price, it will be exactly the same pattern as yesterday: a pump to let foreign investors sell. If they can hold the opening price and foreign investors turn to net buying, then it can be said that the rebound in the US stock market has truly been connected.
Japan is similar. The Nikkei has pulled back significantly from its October high. Today's high open is certain, but whether it can reclaim 60,000 points depends on whether semiconductor equipment stocks follow.
This US stock market rebound is a gap fill, and the political obstacles have not yet been removed. Asia-Pacific is following the rebound with the same nature. Don't chase the high open; watch the close.
Today's wave is a gap-fill rebound after a deep drop, not a trend reversal; the political obstacle is still pressing down and hasn't been removed.
Let's look at the close first. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.85%, closing at 10033.93; $SOXX up 7.49%; $QQQ up 3.54%, $SPY up 2.37%. The Associated Press said it was the best day for the S&P since April. From the low on 11/5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rebounded over 11% in two days.
But the biggest rebounders were precisely those that fell the hardest last week. $COHR up 16.8%, $AMD up 13.3%, $AVGO up 8.8%, $MU up 6.3%. AMD also had its own positive news: Oppenheimer upgraded its rating, plus its EPYC processors will be integrated into Google's new TPU system. Most others were short-covering after overselling, with bottom-fishing funds buying opportunistically.
Technically, it's even clearer. On November 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gapped down; the previous day's low was 10064.73, but the intraday high that day was only 9838, leaving a gap. Today’s intraday high was 10116, just enough to fill the gap, but the close retreated to 10033, failing to hold the upper edge of the gap. $SOXX was similar, with an intraday high of 148.01, surpassing the gap upper edge at 147.23, but closing at 146.76, also retreating.
Gap filling is the most common first target of a rebound. Filling the gap then falling back indicates there are still sellers above.
There are several hurdles above. The July 29 level at 10447, previously support, is now resistance; the 20-day moving average is near 10900; the gap left on October 30 ranges from 10957 to 11364. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is still over 30% below its highest close, and today it didn’t even reclaim the 11/4 close at 10268.
The key reason remains. Last week's semiconductor plunge priced in the market's anticipation of slower data center approvals and tighter AI regulation after the Democrats took control of Congress. From this weekend to today, no new policy statements have emerged—no confirmation of just a delay, nor any ruling out of further tightening. The cause of the drop remains; today's rise is just sentiment and position adjustment.
$NVDA also illustrates this: while the sector surged, it fell 4.27%, with volume more than double last Friday’s. Funds are selectively buying, not fully returning.
My approach:
No chasing. Adding positions after a 7% rise means buying at others’ short-covering prices.
No leverage. Political risk could strike again anytime; leveraged positions won’t survive until clarity.
Focus only on major indices and semiconductor leaders; buy in batches on pullbacks; avoid small high-volatility stocks. This round broke the trend for small caps, and funds are unlikely to return soon.
In the next few days, I’m watching a few things: tomorrow’s CPI; Applied Materials’ earnings on 11/12 to see if equipment orders persist; Nvidia’s earnings on 11/17. Price-wise, first see if it can reclaim the gap, then watch 10447 and the 20-day moving average. Politically, only if there’s clear guidance, price reclaims the gap, and a pullback doesn’t break support—only then will I call this a reversal.
Until then, every big rise should be treated as a rebound.
INJ has risen more than 13% in the past 7 days, LIT has basically remained flat, while JUP has still fallen more than 6%. With all three revolving around on-chain transactions, the market pricing for different projects has clearly diverged.
$INJ is currently around $8.17, clearly leading recently. $8.05 is the first support level, with resistance between $8.30 and $8.55 above. Only by firmly holding above $8.55 can it strengthen further; falling below $8.00 risks short-term profit-taking. Although INJ is strong on the weekly chart, it is approaching previous highs.
$LIT is currently around $3.26, basically flat over the past 7 days. Support is seen at $3.15–$3.20, with resistance at $3.35 above. Breaking through $3.35 opens the chance to challenge $3.55; losing $3.10 could lead to renewed weakness.
$JUP is currently around $0.242, down about 6% in the past 7 days. The first support is at $0.235–$0.238, with resistance at $0.245–$0.25 above. Only by holding above $0.25 can the structure improve; falling below $0.235 risks further declines. JUP currently clearly lacks sustained buying pressure.
