Tonight the October CPI data will be released, and the market expects the month-on-month growth to continue slowing.
Due to the government shutdown last October (from October 1 to November 12), this time the year-on-year data will unusually not be released.
Since the November CPI will only be published after the December rate decision meeting, this CPI data may become an important basis for the December rate hike. Currently, the December rate hike expectation shown by CME is already above 80%. It has been somewhat priced in by the market.
Looking only at the expected values, all are lower than the previous values, which is still optimistic. If the released value meets or is below expectations, it will be positive; slightly above expectations but below previous values may be a small negative; above previous values will be directly negative.
Speaking of the oil prices that the market is watching, currently #WTI has fallen below $85, and #BZ has fallen below $90, both are the lowest points since September. Personally, as long as tonight's data is not particularly bad, risk markets should still get a boost.
I am still holding my long positions in Micron and SanDisk. Just waiting for the release at 9:30 PM.
I only hope that after tonight, the US and Iran can slowly ease tensions and not escalate actions further.
Because oil prices in November and December will directly affect inflation in December, January, and February, the December rate hike is not scary.
If the expectation is for more rate hikes in Q1 next year, that will be tough. DYOR
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