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清遥
油价因霍尔木兹和谈预期回落，布伦特收于113.88美元，WTI跌破100关口‼️‼️
虽然油价回落，但盘面并没有太好：$BTC 账户多空比高达2.39且持续上升，散户多头极度拥挤，而大账户同期在减码，现货CVD为负，合约端卖压积极
“油价回落”带来的风险偏好修复，在盘面上并没有得到现货买盘的确认，更多是被散户杠杆多头接走了
霍尔木兹周边遇袭船只数量创年内新高，地缘风险溢价只是部分回落，并未消失
油价的消息给了一次喘息，但散户多头拥挤、现货不跟的结构下，反弹终究比较受限
上方套牢盘比较多，加上下方高杠杆的抛压，行情走的慢且复杂
接下来如果油价持续回落，多头杠杆不拥挤，配合上$BTC 现货ETF的流入，可以来个不错的反弹回补上方缺口
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
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