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每日財經 · Daily Finance
期权桌上的赌局:大家都在买保险
这是个容易被忽略的信号。Deribit 上 10月30日月度期权到期规模约112亿美元,最大痛点7.6万;23日那批12.3亿,痛点8.2万[web_doc 57]。再看 BVIV,比特币期权未平仓占全部衍生品未平仓的比例从年初约50%升到 快60%,光 IBIT 期权就约350亿美元[web_doc 16]。
更关键的是 偏斜(skew)还偏负,短期限看跌比看涨贵[web_doc 18][web_doc 52]。翻译过来:嘴上有人押9万,身体却都在买下行保护。
我挺喜欢这个状态。真正的顶部,往往是所有人都懒得买保险、看涨期权贵得离谱的时候。现在不是。$BTC
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