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寒江观盘
BTC贴着ETF成本线，波动率压到极低
价格韧性：BTC在8.2万美元附近反复撑住，接近现货ETF持仓成本；下方短期持有者成本约7.48万、真实市场均值约7.76万，两者构成多空分界参考。
波动收敛：近30天、60天交易区间分别收窄至1.8%、3.0%；3个月和6个月隐含波动率仅处历史第0.8、0.2百分位，市场对 future 波动定价极低。
资金与派发：本周美国现货ETF净流入10.74亿美元，与现货累计成交量差同步上升，托住价格；但已实现利润增加，长期持有者净头寸变化为负，或正处派发阶段，这也是盘整原因之一。
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