SNDK at $1390, would you still dare to chase?
Analysts shout a target price of 2173, the earnings report is on October 29, but the stock price has been halved from 2354 to 1299 — yet today, it suddenly pulled back above 1400, up 7%. Is this a golden pit or the last institutional trap before the earnings?
Let's look at the surface first: after a week of decline, a violent rebound today.
Last week, the semiconductor sector collectively crashed, SNDK dropped from the September high all the way down to 1299, breaking the uptrend line, with technicals showing "lower highs and lower lows". But today it opened and directly surged to 1400-1405, with increased volume, oversold buying came in. The 24-hour perpetual contracts move in sync with the stock, causing greater volatility. RSI rebounded from the oversold zone, 1350-1370 is today's support low, 1420-1450 is the first resistance of the rebound — a short-term oversold bounce, but still within a mid-term correction structure.
First thing: Is the AI storage super cycle really real?
SNDK's fundamentals are ridiculously strong: FY2026 revenue 20.25 billion, +175% YoY, net profit 11.43 billion, EPS 73-78. Data center SSD business once reported +437%, gross margin is so high it has pricing power, NAND supply tightness supports high prices. Also partnered with Meta on VR glasses storage, analysts mostly Buy/Strong Buy, target price midpoint 2173, highest 3600.
China's CXMT developed 4F² structure in DRAM, market worries Chinese supply will eventually impact pricing. Last week semiconductor sector kept falling, storage stocks collectively pulled back, CoreWeave's debt concerns also dragged AI-related stocks. Good fundamentals don't equal good stock price — cheap valuation may be because the market is pricing in "the future won't be that good" early.
Second thing: October 29 earnings, is it a truth mirror or a money printer?
Expected EPS about 46, revenue 10.6-10.85 billion, market already priced in ±10% fluctuation.
Historical pattern: SNDK earnings often beat.
Being fully invested before earnings is not investing, it's buying a lottery ticket.
Third thing: A contradiction in technicals that must be watched
Good side: today's volume surge rebound, stabilizing above 1400, short-term bottom confirmation attempt. Supports at 1350-1370, 1290-1300, 1250-1280.
Bad side: price still below some moving averages, mid-term correction structure not broken. 1420-1450 is first resistance, 1500 second, 1600-1650 is MA pressure zone.
Today's rebound is oversold repair, not a trend reversal.
To confirm reversal, volume must surge and stabilize above 1450.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
Forward PE 6x, valuation ridiculously cheap
AI data center SSD demand explosion, NAND supply tight
Analyst target 2173, highest 3600
Today's volume surge rebound, oversold repair
On the other side:
Halved from 2354 to 1299, mid-term trend still down
China CXMT progress, storage sector under collective pressure
Last week broke key support, technicals bearish
Earnings ±10% fluctuation, leveraged funds can liquidate anytime
Key levels
Resistance above: 1420-1450 → 1500 → 1600-1650 → 1800+
Support below: 1350-1370 → 1290-1300 → 1250-1280 (breakdown target 1200)
Trading strategy
Short term (1-3 days): mainly rebound trades
Light long on pullback at 1370-1380, stop loss below 1350, target 1420-1450. Add on volume breakout above 1450 aiming for 1500.
Light short if rebound blocked at 1420-1450, stop loss above 1460, target 1380/1350.
Don't chase highs — chasing at 1400 now means a 3.5% loss if it pulls back to 1350, leverage can cause liquidation.
Swing (until earnings): neutral to slightly bullish, but must reduce and hedge
Build long in batches at 1300-1350, target 1500-1600, stop loss 1250.
If breaks 1290 with volume, switch to watch or light short, target 1200.
Must reduce or hedge before earnings — ±10% swings are no joke.
Mid to long term: wait for deeper pullback
Bullish on AI storage super cycle? Build spot/low leverage in batches at 1200-1300, target 2000+.
But remember: Chinese competition and AI capex data are two swords hanging overhead.
SNDK now is like Nvidia in 2023 —
Everyone says "AI is the future," but NVDA fell from 300 to 108 in 2022, how many cut losses at the bottom?
Then what? From 108 to 1400.
Good companies falling can make you doubt your life.
The super cycle story hasn't changed, what changed is your cost basis and leverage.
On October 29 earnings day, you'll find —
Either "should have gotten in earlier" regret, or "should have reduced earlier" remorse.
$BTC$SNDK$CXMT
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
