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招財進寶,萬事如意
#台积电Q3净利润超预期,盈利创历史新高
台积电Q3超预期,不是AI需求突然回暖,是AI芯片订单从英伟达扩散到了整个先进制程。台积电成了这轮算力竞赛里最确定的收费站。
依据:Q3净利润创历史新高,毛利率约60%,HPC占营收近六成。2nm开始贡献,CoWoS产能仍是瓶颈。市场反应温和,因为超预期已被提前定价。
细节:真正看点在Q4指引和2027年资本开支。股价没大涨,说明买盘在等更明确的扩产信号。
盯两个指标——CoWoS月产能能否继续爬坡,2nm良率能否稳在80%以上。两者都稳,AI硬件叙事就没结束;缺一个,这次超预期就是阶段性顶点。
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