wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Tonight, a signal that not many people are sharing, but is more fundamental than the K-line: Japan's 30-year government bond auction demand is weak, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.36 (previously 3.88). After the auction, yields didn't fall but rose, and ultra-long-term rates are moving back up.
In plain language, the world's largest supplier of "cheap money" can't even sell its own long-term bonds now. The market is worried about fiscal health. Coupled with the swap market pricing in about a 77% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December, it means the low-interest environment that arbitrage funds rely on is tightening.
In recent years, the underlying fuel for risk assets, including $BTC, has largely been this global excess liquidity. When long-term bonds are being drained and central banks are tightening, the valuations of risk assets are swimming naked against the wind.
Don't get too excited about the sharp rebound in US stocks those days; the water level underneath is quietly dropping. You watch the CPI, I watch the interest rates.
Where is the AI bubble at? Just look at one signal: the hottest unicorn is rushing to go public and cash out.
Anthropic plans to rush to Nasdaq before Thanksgiving, with roadshows starting these days, and even JPMorgan's Dimon personally endorsing it. More subtly, they first sent an email with IPO pricing details, then quickly retracted it saying "the details were incorrect," showing how anxious they are.
I'm not saying this company is no good. What I mean is, when the smartest people in capital choose this moment to convert their chips into cash and secure their gains, while retail investors are still chasing AI concepts with leverage in the secondary market, putting these two things together just feels off.
The top of a bubble is never popped by a single needle; it's a quiet exit by a group of insiders. $BTC and tech stocks have resonated in this wave—don't just remember the times they rose together.
A piece of news overshadowed by AI robot reports but worth noting for those in storage: Elon Musk's Terafab has set a target of producing 700,000 storage wafers per month, a scale approaching Samsung's entire DRAM production capacity.
The market narrative these past two weeks has been "storage supply shortage, price hikes expected." But what's really happening on the supply side is: Musk is entering the field, TSMC is being pulled by Nvidia to produce 3D DRAM, even the foundry king is squeezing in.
No matter how hot the demand story is, it can't withstand everyone rushing in to expand production simultaneously. This is how the cyclical nature of the storage industry works: price hikes attract capacity, and capacity eventually crushes the price hikes.
Short-term sentiment can keep pushing storage stocks up, but I prefer to note these long-term supply signals amid the frenzy first. Do you think this round of storage is a real shortage, or just another pre-expansion frenzy?
Tuesday's CPI hasn't been released yet, but two groups of people in the backend are already asking the same question: Is it time to bottom-fish, should we chase this rebound?
My answer is reflected in my position—very light.
The reasoning is simple: CPI is the only referee this week, with the market consensus for the monthly rate at +0.3% and core at +0.2%. Before the numbers come out, whether there will be a rate hike in December is like a coin still in the air. Heavy positioning on one side before the coin lands is not trading, it's betting.
After playing cards for so many years, I only believe in one thing: when you can't see the cards clearly, the most expensive move is "feeling like you must have a position." $BTC is stuck around 74,500, with volume dried up to almost no trading; the best move in such a market is to wait.
Are you anxious with full positions now, or sitting empty watching the show?
Let's talk about the only truly resilient asset in the past two weeks — gold. The gold price has been oscillating at a high level above $4000. On one hand, there is a renewed expectation of interest rate hikes; on the other, there is simultaneous easing in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Both forces should have been headwinds, yet gold hasn't dropped much.
In contrast, $BTC, which claims to be "digital gold" every day, during actual risk-off moments, its price movements fully depend on the mood of the US stock market, showing no independent backbone. What's the difference? Behind gold is structural accumulation by central banks worldwide, with the Chinese central bank increasing its holdings monthly for over two years; behind Bitcoin this round is more of a tide of leveraged funds.
Of course, blindly chasing gold at high levels isn't wise either. The world's largest silver ETF reduced its holdings by 14 tons yesterday, indicating differentiation within precious metals. Holding through tailwinds and locking in profits at highs is smarter than chasing at the top. When the market tightens, the true safe-haven assets and those just riding the concept will be clearly distinguished.
Everyone is focused on Tuesday's CPI, but one line has been overshadowed: geopolitical tensions are genuinely cooling down. The Russian delegation has already arrived in Abu Dhabi and will sit down with Ukraine and the US on Tuesday to talk. Trump himself said "a breakthrough is possible"; meanwhile, he also stated there is no need to take further action against Iran, and ExxonMobil even signed a deal to return to Venezuela to explore for oil.
Several events combined point in the same direction — oil prices are heading down. This is the real fuel behind last week's US stock market rebound after overselling: oil prices fall, inflation expectations ease.
But a reminder: don't casually apply this logic to $BTC. De-escalation of war benefits the valuation of risk assets, not Bitcoin's "safe haven" attribute. War has never been a bullish reason for Bitcoin. Don't mistake someone else's tailwind for your own direction.
A piece of news overshadowed by the chip surge that I think deserves more attention than the K-line: In the Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes, some members have openly advocated for "accelerating the pace of rate hikes," citing that inflation targets have been met and the financial environment remains too loose.
Why is this important? One of the underlying fuels for the global risk asset rally over the past decade has been the near-zero-cost arbitrage capital in yen. If Japan really pushes interest rates toward a neutral level, it means the world's largest cheap capital faucet is slowly being tightened.
Don't just focus on whether the Fed will hike rates in December. Assets like $BTC have always feared not a single meeting's decision point, but the overall direction of the liquidity tide. When the tide recedes, those swimming naked will be exposed. Can your position withstand the water level dropping?
Asian chips collectively take off tonight: South Korea's KOSPI once rose over 5% intraday, Samsung and SK Hynix both surged over 5%, Japan's SoftBank directly soared 12%, and the Nikkei gained 3 points. The backstage is lively again—Kongshen, is your storage empty framework about to be proven wrong?
Let me put it this way: I still remain bearish on this round of AI bubble. The systemic deleveraging pit created last week has been partially filled these past two days, which is a typical "buy the dip" technical rebound, not a fundamental shift. The rebound is borrowed; once it reaches the limit, it has to be paid back. I'm not turning bullish.
$BTC, as usual tonight, did not follow the enthusiasm of the Asian stock markets and stayed flat. On one side is the collective euphoria of the stock market, on the other is the silence of crypto—which do you think is more honest?
Last night the Dow surged 1,100 points, AMD soared 13% in a single day, and immediately a bunch of people in the background exploded: Is it going to reverse? Should we chase it?
If I were to answer you in poker terms: just because your opponent wins two hands in a row doesn't mean you should go all-in on the next one.
A 13% gain in one day is never a healthy bull market; it's a short squeeze and emotional recovery after an oversell. The sharper the rise, the harsher the possible pullback. For someone like me who sees the big picture as bearish on the AI bubble, this kind of vertical rebound is actually an opportunity to reposition chips back into the short zone, not a signal to get on board.
Moreover, the real referee only appears on Tuesday—until the CPI is released, all the ups and downs are just noise. Before the big cards are revealed, keeping your position light and your hands steady is more important than anything.
Are you planning to chase this rebound, or wait until the cards are shown before making a move?
