陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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RT @qinbafrank: Three envoys are heading to the Middle East together; recently China has really been stepping up its efforts in the Middle East situation. The core purpose is exactly what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced: to urge peace talks, promote negotiations, and ease tensions.…
1. Previously, Bitcoin stubbornly held at 80,000, and I said it was insanely strong;
2. Later, I said as long as Bitcoin stays above 76,000, it’s a strong consolidation;
Now Bitcoin has fallen below 76,000, so it has shifted from strong to weak;
Let me explain what I understand by strong and weak:
Strong means indicators are showing bullish divergence, the market leverage is too high, the position is too heavy, so it has to come back to blow up high-leverage positions, unload some, then continue the rally and dance;
What does it mean to shift from strong to weak? Simply put, previously the bulls and bears were not balanced, bulls had the advantage, but now bulls and bears have reached a balanced contest of power; I have to say, during this period, the environment (the overall market conditions) favors the bears, and apart from the steadfast holders, bulls have no other advantage.
If previously Bitcoin was ridiculously strong, the preset scenario was a fast push with no chance to get on board; now the preset scenario can’t be a fast push anymore, since it has started to oscillate, so let it oscillate, and the adjustment period might be longer than we imagined.
1. Bears are impressive, previously they used oil as an excuse, now that oil prices are falling, they use the US dollar as an excuse;
2. We can only wait for the US stock market to stabilize.
3. In the short term, I think there will be another rebound. The Fibonacci 0.5 level itself is the boundary between strong and weak. If it goes lower, a pullback will be painful, and many bulls will be wiped out by the bear consensus; moreover, there is also support from the daily SMA200 moving average.
From the perspective of the adjustment structure (if this is an adjustment), I believe the main trend has basically completed:
1. The first drop was from 87 to 80, then a rebound; the second drop was from 85 to 73.5;
2. ① The second drop has already exceeded a 1:1 ratio of the first drop, currently the wick reached 1.382, if it falls further to 1.618, it would be broken; ② The wick at 73.5 broke the bottom of wave 4 of the previous rise, which should have triggered a large number of stop-loss orders.
The adjustment pattern has been completed, and the purpose of the adjustment (liquidating leverage, shaking out floating positions) has been achieved. If this is an adjustment, it should be nearing its end.
陈桂林谈交易
1. A while ago, I saw $BTC was ridiculously strong and thought this round wouldn't pull back to the daily SMA200 level, but unexpectedly, it did, albeit late (see Figure 1);
Now Bitcoin has reached the strength-weakness dividing line (support):
1. The price of the SMA200 today is 73153;
2. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement price from the 57–87 segment rise is 72581.
If Bitcoin falls below this level, it objectively means weakness.
2. As for that beast $ETH, I feel it’s an M pattern, really can’t help but curse it (see Figure 2)
2100–2800 is the consolidation zone; below 2100 is a bear market, above 2800 is a bull market.
1. A while ago, I saw $BTC was ridiculously strong and thought this round wouldn't pull back to the daily SMA200 level, but unexpectedly, it did, albeit late (see Figure 1);
Now Bitcoin has reached the strength-weakness dividing line (support):
1. The price of the SMA200 today is 73153;
2. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement price from the 57–87 segment rise is 72581.
If Bitcoin falls below this level, it objectively means weakness.
2. As for that beast $ETH, I feel it’s an M pattern, really can’t help but curse it (see Figure 2)
2100–2800 is the consolidation zone; below 2100 is a bear market, above 2800 is a bull market.
Chen Guilin's Trading Notes.
November 8, 2026
I believe the grinding phase at the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market is the market's last chance for many participants to adjust their overall bull market strategy framework;
Because once the real bull market starts; with FOMO emotions, information explosion, and accelerated pace, there will no longer be an opportunity to calmly think things through.
So, if the next two years are a bull market, what is my overall trading framework for the bull market? Am I prepared?
A few questions I have thought about:
1. Self-assessment: Up to now, I have a relatively objective understanding of my trading habits, psychological endurance, and tolerance for position size and operations. Based on this objective self-awareness, the trading plan I have made should be relatively objective and executable.
2. Plan: What main targets to trade and how to trade them; just think it through clearly, the simpler the easier to execute; no need to be complicated.
3. Things I have already started doing in this round that have brought positive feedback:
No short-term trading, no difficult trades, no showing off positions or orders, no concern for social media.
4. Limited: limited time, limited energy, limited money;
Unlimited: unlimited targets, unlimited sectors, unlimited hot topics;
To make money: targets must be stable and have growth; I must be able to hold heavy positions and hold on.
The length of time is also very important, 2-4-8-16 (2)
On the eve of the 2020 bull market, my UNI was stuck at 8U, which was almost all my assets; at its lowest, I remember it dropped to about 1~2U.
But I was lucky, my teacher told me to hold on, UNI would definitely be the engine of the bull market, and the bull market was about to start.
At that time, I knew nothing and could only choose to believe, but having my position stuck and halved was very painful, so I had to find something to do to distract myself from the pain.
So I started playing WARGAME back then, buying all kinds of water guns, various modifications, parts replacements, and polishing. After a few months, I held on until the bull market came.
When people are suffering in the trading market, they must learn to find their own way to divert attention, because some market conditions cause more losses the harder you try, and the more you lose, the more painful it gets.
I can only say my PS5 was not bought in vain; I feel like I can play games until I'm old 😇
