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November 11, 2026, Issue 114 Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis On the evening of November 10, the US October CPI was released, hotter than expected: overall month-on-month increase of 0.4%, expected 0.3%; core month-on-month increase of 0.3%, expected 0.2%. Fed Governor Waller previously said that with the core around 0.3%, a 50 basis point rate hike should be considered in December. Once the data was released, two assets with completely different trends this year both took a hit. Gold fell 1.7%, back to around $4,050; BTC swept down from 75,000 to 72,744, then recovered to 74,700 within a day. Both fell on the same day, but I believe the stories behind them are diverging. This issue puts together the recent two weeks' materials on gold and BTC to clarify one thing: why gold has very likely already bottomed first, while BTC's final phase is not yet over. 01 Gold: Just a deep correction, the bull market will continue First, look at the retracement magnitude. Gold has retraced about 30% from its high. This figure is not outrageous historically: the 2006 retracement was about 25%, 2008 about 34%, 2022 about 22%, after which new highs were made again. Next, look at the most critical technical signal. For gold, the bull market support zone is seen on the monthly chart, specifically the 20-month moving average and the 21-month exponential moving average. October's monthly candle closed below the support zone, but November has reclaimed it. This pattern is almost identical to October 2008: back then also