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夏威夷企鹅
夏威夷企鹅
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市场周六没有反弹,我想市场恐怕短时间内不会反弹了,我已经掉头开空了。 关于做空,我是有比较多的依据的。我一点一点说,从国际形势到政党态度。 我们先看国际形势,国际形势之前是伊朗冲突,但现在世界的目光已经不聚焦在这上了。 之后是共和党,共和党全面败选,目前影响还在发酵,之后很多支持加密的人士可能会离开岗位。 最后是民主党,这个周末,刷屏的应该就是蓝色海啸这个词,民主党确实当得起这个词。 倘若民主党的政策落地了一半,美国硬科技的价格至少回落到年初,也就是说 现在还能再腰斩。 而且,在过去两次中期选举后,加密的表现都不乐观,都有非常大的回撤。 这种时候,还是不要坚持吧。 我还是那句话,市场永远有机会,但是我们不会有无限的本金,所以一定要抓确定性的机会。 对于这种非常不确定的情况,还是稳妥一点好。 我目前的做法是,留一点点现货,开一些衍生品的空头仓位,目前算下来是净持有空头仓位的。 在这个月到下个月美联储议息会议这段时间,我认为加密的表现不会好,恐怕$ETH 这轮还得到$1500 以下,$BTC 恐怕能到$60000 以下。 #美国10月非农超预期,12月加息押注升温
夏威夷企鹅
夏威夷企鹅
Calm and peaceful, waiting quietly for the rebound on Saturday!
The market dipped the day before yesterday. However, it stabilized yesterday, which is a good thing. —————————————————— It's the weekend now, the US stock market is closed, but crypto is still trading. Personally, I think $ETH might have a big surge over the weekend. Why? Because during the decline, a lot of funds bought $ETH at the bottom, and they will probably push the price up over the weekend. I believe crypto won't wait for the US stock market to open to start rising, because right now everyone is uncertain about the Democratic Party's stance on AI, so it's unclear if the US stock market can really rebound. That's my thinking, so I've bought some long positions now. If $ETH rises to $2300 tonight, I should make a small profit. —————————————————— Let's now look at the contract data. The contract data shows that during the last decline, the long-short ratio and open interest rose simultaneously, indicating that quite a bit of capital did buy at the bottom. When someone buys, there are people willing to push the price up, because pushing the price up makes money; if they don't push, they can't make money. I've observed previous weekend trends and found that after a sharp drop, crypto has a fairly high chance of rising over the weekend. —————————————————— Buying long positions now is still very cheap, so even if there are losses, they are within a controllable range. At times like this, staying out and watching is very prudent, that's how I see it. However, I still want to make some money, so I took a bit of risk and am willing to bear it. #美

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