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#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
这次非农明显超预期，强化了美联储维持高利率甚至加息的理由；对AI股短期不利，但是否进一步下跌，还要看11月10日的CPI数据。
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#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
Tonight, the non-farm payrolls are likely to slightly exceed market expectations, with the highest probability that the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. Overall, this indicates a moderate recovery in employment but not yet overheating.
ADP has grown for two consecutive months, and initial jobless claims are near historic lows, indicating that U.S. companies have not significantly expanded layoffs. However, new hiring remains slow, so I believe a moderate non-farm payrolls figure slightly above expectations is more reasonable than a strong increase of over 200,000. ADP should not be directly used as a forecast for the official non-farm payrolls.
For investors preparing to watch stocks like $SOXL, $AAOI, and $IREN tonight, I think the ideal outcome is an increase of 50,000–80,000 in non-farm payrolls, unemployment holding at 4.2%, and wage growth not exceeding expectations. This neither implies a significant downturn in the job market nor further strengthens expectations for Fed rate hikes.
But don't overlook next Tuesday (November 10) when the U.S. October CPI is released: if employment is moderate tonight and inflation is also below expectations next week, it is more likely to create macro conditions for a sustained rebound in tech growth stocks.
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