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夏威夷企鹅
夏威夷企鹅
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昨天晚上市场是有分歧的,$ETH 和$BTC 迎来了难得的大涨。 但是,美股产生了分歧,$SNDK 之类的硬件科技股暴跌,$AAPL 之类的科技股倒是涨了很多。 —————————————————— 这是一个很奇怪的现象,因为一般来讲的话,科技要反弹是一起反弹的,但是这一次硬件科技没有反弹。 我认为这和美国民众的情绪有关,美国民众现在非常抗拒数据中心。 因为数据中心抬高了当地的水电的价格,所以受到了强烈抵制。 如果你仔细研究美国大选,可以发现一件事,在这次大选中,翻蓝的州多数都是在大建数据中心的。 现在民主党上来了,数据中心的建设可能要停一停了。 这就给硬件科技股的未来蒙上一层阴影了,我认为这是硬件科技股一直不涨的原因。 除了硬件科技股,美股的其他科技板块还涨的挺好的,这个和加密的上涨是吻合的。 —————————————————— 我思考了一下将来加密的走势,我认为现在还是不能进去做多,因为现在很有可能还在半山腰。 我在这里放一张图,这是一个下跌的完整流程,现在很可能就是在第一次喊牛回的时候,这种时候切记不要贪多。 #美国中期选举:民主党赢得国会两院控制权
夏威夷企鹅
夏威夷企鹅
After the midterm elections, the market rebounded across the board. Is the bull market back?
$BTC, $ETH, and $SNDK have all experienced a rebound, and the market looks very prosperous. Many people seeing this scene might think the bull market has returned. However, I believe the bull market has not yet come back; this is just a last flicker before a major market crash. Let's look at it from two perspectives: one is the result of the midterm elections, and the other is the contract data of $ETH. Both perspectives can help us see the direction clearly. —————————————————— First, let's look at the midterm elections. The result was a big win for the Democrats, taking both the House and Senate, and Trump is now a lame-duck president. Given Trump's past behavior, what do you think he will do? I believe it is highly likely to be war or unlimited vetoes. To maintain his power and avoid investigations by the Democrats, Trump is very likely to continue the US-Iran conflict; this is entirely possible. Another approach is to exercise unlimited presidential veto power, which is a moderate method—vetoing all bills from both chambers to force the Democrats to cooperate with him. Either of these methods is bearish for the market, so from a macro perspective, there is currently no sign of long-term bullish potential. —————————————————— Now let's look at the contract data of $ETH. Contract data reflects market sentiment; it is the most direct factor affecting price and one of my important bases for judgment. Let's first look at the short-term data, which is very bearish. We can see that its long-short ratio in the middle

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