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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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1130美元的SNDK,你还在等解套? 财报营收暴增378%,股价却从2300腰斩到1130——SNDK到底是被错杀,还是NAND周期见顶的第一块多米诺骨牌? 先看表面:财报炸裂,股价却像吃了泻药。 10月29日财报:营收110亿美元,同比暴增378%;EPS 49.51美元;毛利率85.1%;数据中心业务48亿,环比+61%,占比44%;还回购了50亿美元股份。这不得拉到1500? 结果呢?开盘冲高,然后一路砸。11月2日跌6.6%,现货收盘1075,永续现在1130附近晃悠。从6月高点2300+跌下来,腰斩再腰斩,近一个月跌了30-35%。财报这么好,为什么跌成狗? 第一件事:财报是过去,股价是未来。 营收110亿、EPS 49.51、毛利率85%——这些数字确实炸裂。但市场看的是什么?是下一季NAND价格还能不能涨。 指引给了122-126亿营收、EPS 55-57,按说也不差。但“利好出尽+卖消息”是周期股最经典的杀人现场。市场担忧的是:NAND价格涨幅放缓、供应逐步跟上、周期属性回归。 第二件事:8拆1不是救命稻草,是流动性陷阱。 公司宣布8拆1股票拆分,11月19/20日前后生效,说是“提升可及性” 拆股不改变公司任何基本面,只是把一张100块拆成8张12块5。它不会让公司更值钱,只会让更多散户觉得“便宜了”然后冲进来接盘。 拆股不是利好,是给散户发的安慰剂。真正的好公司,不需要靠拆股来证明自己便宜 第三件事:技术面空头排列,超卖反弹弱得像没吃饭 大趋势:2025年分拆后涨到2026年6月见顶,然后进入中期下跌通道。近一个月跌30-35%,从1400+快速下破,跌破前期整理区。 MA7/25/99空头排列,日线RSI在30附近低位。反弹缩量,下跌放量——典型弱势特征 支撑:1060-1100(近期低点+心理关口),跌破看1000 阻力:1180-1200(短期反弹目标),再上1250-1300(强压力) 放量站稳1150-1160并回踩不破,才叫止跌信号;跌破1100放量,就是空头延续。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: AI数据中心存储需求叙事仍强,长期合约NBM提供可见性 估值压缩到5-9倍前瞻盈利,回购50亿+零负债 超卖反弹需求,1060-1100支撑区 目标价共识仍高,分析师没全面投降 一边是: NAND价格涨幅放缓、供应跟上,周期回归担忧 财报后“卖消息”,近一个月跌30-35% 均线空头排列,反弹缩量 8拆1前后流动性扰动,永续插针风险 半导体板块波动大,宏观利率/科技情绪压制 关键位置 上方阻力:1180-1200 → 1250-1300 → 1400 下方支撑:1060-1100 → 1000 操作策略 短线(1-3天): 观望为主,或轻仓博弈反弹。若放量站稳1150-1160并回踩不破,小仓试多,目标1180-1220,止损1130下方或1100。若跌破1100并放量,空头延续,目标1050-1000,止损上方。资金费率中性时,别高杠杆过夜,插针专治不服。 中线(1-4周): 等明确止跌。理想入场是1060-1100支撑区多次确认后缩量企稳,再分批建多;或突破1200后回踩确认再跟。当前不追涨,也不盲目抄底。 目标先看1400附近前高回补,AI叙事再强化可更高。 SNDK现在就像2022年的存储股—— 财报越好,股价越跌,因为周期见顶的恐惧压倒一切。但等NAND库存出清、AI存储需求再超预期,你会发现: 原来不是SanDisk不行,是你被周期吓破了胆。 $BTC $ETH $SNDK
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI at $7.2, are you still waiting for $6.8? The SEC just eased restrictions on governance tokens, Uniswap v4 now allows external trades to burn UNI, a one-time burn of 100 million tokens has been implemented, and CME has launched UNI futures — yet the price has dropped from $9 to $7.2, down 21% in 30 days. Just now, the $7.0-$7.2 range is repeatedly tested with lukewarm trading volume. Is this the last shakeout before all the good news is priced in, or are smart money quietly accumulating? Let's look at the surface: a bunch of positive news, but the price is stuck on the ground. The SEC's latest guidance clarifies that widely distributed governance tokens are generally not automatically considered securities just because they have voting rights — the regulatory sword hanging over UNI for years has finally been lifted. Uniswap v4 Aggregator Hooks launched, connecting 7 external liquidity sources, covering over 90% of DEX activity on Ethereum, Base, and Robinhood Chain. External trades can now generate protocol fees and burn UNI. Along with the previous one-time burn of 100 million UNI and the ongoing fee switch. But what about the price? It fell from above $9 to $7.2, down 21% in 30 days. The candlestick chart tells you: $7.0-$7.2 is a strong support tested multiple times, RSI is neutral at 45-55, MACD is weak, and moving averages are tangled. All indicators say one thing: it can't fall further, but no one dares to push it up. First: Regulation has eased, but the market hasn't caught up yet. Many people just skimmed the SEC staff guidance and moved on. Let me tell you how important it is: In recent years, institutions avoided UNI mainly because of the question "Is this a security?" Now the SEC clearly states: widely distributed governance tokens are not automatically securities just because you have voting rights. In plain language: compliance departments can approve it now. CME has launched UNI futures — this is not for retail traders, but for institutions to hedge and allocate. Ondo integrated tokenized stocks into Uniswap pools, and Robinhood Chain became one of the first partners of v4 hooks. The same signal appeared with Bitcoin in 2020 — Grayscale kept buying, but the price didn’t rise. What happened later? Second: UNI is no longer just an "air governance token," it’s quietly burning tokens. Many still think of UNI as "just a governance token, no real use." Wake up. After Uniswap v4 Aggregator Hooks launched, trades from external liquidity sources also generate protocol fees and contribute to UNI burn. Previously, only trades within Uniswap pools burned UNI; now even aggregated external trades burn tokens. This covers over 90% of DEX activity on Ethereum, Base, and Robinhood Chain. Plus, with the TJAR fee switch tool open and ongoing, the one-time treasury burn of 100 million UNI has been implemented. Uniswap’s annualized fees approach $900 million, protocol revenue exceeds $70 million, and part of this revenue directly becomes UNI buy pressure and burn. You’re not buying just governance voting rights; you’re buying a real cash flow-driven deflationary asset. The price is stuck at $7.2, but the fundamentals are already above $9. This is what we call an oversell. Third: Technicals tell you $7.0 is an iron bottom. The $7.0-$7.2 range has been repeatedly tested over the past month, each time met with buying support. Daily RSI is neutral at 45-55, no oversold or overbought — a typical accumulation pattern, not a crash. Resistance above is at $7.3-$7.5, then $7.8-$8.0. Support below is strong at $7.0, secondary support at $6.88-$6.9, and iron bottom at $6.75-$6.8. On the weekly chart, the rebound structure from the low hasn’t been completely broken. $7.5 is the lifeline — if it holds above, $8-$9 opens up; if not, it will continue to consolidate between $7.0-$7.5. Bull vs. Bear, you decide: On one side: - SEC regulatory easing removes institutional compliance barriers - v4 Aggregator Hooks enable external trades to burn UNI - One-time burn of 100 million tokens implemented, fee switch ongoing - CME launched UNI futures, Ondo integrated tokenized stocks - DEX market share 40%, TVL $3.5 billion, annualized fees $900 million - $7.0-$7.2 strong support tested multiple times On the other side: - 21% drop in 30 days, cautious market sentiment after falling from $9 - Macro high interest rate pressure, Fear & Greed index low - BTC hovering at $64,000; if it falls below $60,000 UNI will follow - Failed three attempts to break $7.5, short-term selling pressure remains - Moderate volume, no breakout signal Trading strategy: Short-term traders: Buy lightly in batches at $7.0-$7.1, stop loss at $6.75-$6.8. Take half profits at $7.4-$7.5, add positions if it breaks $7.5 targeting $8.0-$8.5. Around $7.4-$7.5, reduce positions or lightly short to hedge, stop loss at $7.7. High sell low buy within the range, leverage no more than 5-10x. Swing traders: Wait for daily close with volume above $7.5 before entering, stop loss at $7.2, target $8.0-$8.5. If BTC stabilizes and protocol revenue continues to grow, chase directly. If it breaks below $6.8 and confirms, lightly short with stop loss at $7.1, target $6.5-$6.3. Long-term believers: Dollar-cost average below $7.0 with eyes closed. UNI dropped from $9 to $7.2, down 21%, but fundamentals are stronger than ever — regulatory easing, v4 hooks, CME futures, Ondo integration, each is solid. Target $10-$13 by end of 2026, betting on clear DeFi regulation and positive fee burn cycle. But remember — only add after a real breakout and hold above $7.5. UNI now is like UNI at the end of 2020 — 99% thought "governance tokens have no value," but once the fee switch turned on, it went from $2 to $45. $BTC $ETH $UNI

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