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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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对于“知名交易员”观点我不太认同,目前下结论我觉得过于武断 本周一二,看价格能否日线收在78,800上方,本周五个常规交易日整体要看价格能否收在82,000上方 如果能够突破,证明市场信息较强,快速收复跌幅,上涨动力较强,看牛没问题。但是如果跌破,我并不认为牛没了 以目前的走势来看,短期反弹78,800无效,继续回调风险必然大大增加,但是我认为这是市场还未完成情绪修复,并且还未找到底部有效支撑,而且这个区间需要震荡消化完成盘整 所以,未来价格继续回调至73,200-74,500区间我都认为是合理区间,而且价格回归这个区间我认为是一个非常不错的买入阶段,而非牛走了 更重要的是,对于行情判断我并认为只是局限于盘面,关注市场资金变化,ETF动态也非常重要,目前周一ETF数据还未更新,加密资金依旧处于净流出,如果明天周一ETF数据显示依旧净流出,那么意味着市场还需要回调寻找有效支撑(共识) 而这种寻找有效共识的行为,可能就是新的上涨趋势的启动点!#BTC持续承压,资金与市场走势出现分歧
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Of course, whether the current #Bitcoin price is a good bottom-buy opportunity cannot be judged solely by the market and price; one must also consider sentiment and capital flow, especially at the start of a new week
Of course, whether the current #Bitcoin price is a bottom cannot be judged solely by the market and price; one must also consider sentiment and capital flow, especially at the start of a new week. The sentiment aspect is currently effectively controlled; frozen assets remain frozen, and the impact of unrecoverable assets on the market is still uncertain. At the same time, we need to observe whether the market remains overly tense and worried. #US stocks and gold and silver have simultaneously plunged, causing a divergence in safe-haven capital flows. From the data perspective, the focus is on #BTC ETF data and crypto capital flows. If capital continues to maintain net inflows, it means panic is gradually easing, especially ETF funds. This week's #BTC ETF data shows net inflows from Monday to Friday for four consecutive days, but the net inflow amount increased from Monday to a peak on Wednesday, weakened on Thursday, and on Friday a theft incident caused a large net outflow of funds. Overall, this week’s capital is considered a net outflow of 202.4 million, with IBIT being the main channel for net inflows this week and also the main channel for panic selling on Friday. IBIT alone still maintained a net inflow of 176.9 million this week. Clearly, the risk event early Thursday did cause some panic and net capital outflow in the market. Therefore, to determine if this is the bottom, we need to see if ETF funds turn to net inflows next week with strong return flows. If net outflows continue next week, then short-term effective support has not yet arrived! Crypto market data is recorded here only because the early Thursday risk event caused disruptions in trading, capital flows, and the market capitalization of major stablecoins.

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