$BTC$ETH Key focus for next week:
Federal Reserve officials' speeches (voting members prioritized)
Several voting members continue to express views, mainly watching whether they will continue to emphasize "keeping the option to raise rates"; hawkish tilt pushes US Treasury yields up, suppressing gold and BTC; dovish tilt tends to cause rebounds. Speeches often cause short-term spikes, avoid chasing news.
JOLTS job openings: check if job demand is cooling down; if jobs remain hot = strong employment resilience, raising rate hike expectations
ADP private payrolls: early indicator for nonfarm payrolls, reference for employment strength
Initial jobless claims: high-frequency observation of layoff signals
Nonfarm payrolls + unemployment rate + wages: wages are a key inflation component; wages rising above expectations will quickly raise December rate hike probability, bearish for risk assets
Spot BTC ETF fund inflows and outflows (institutional real sentiment)
10-year US Treasury yield, US dollar index (most direct linkage indicators)
Contract leverage, long-short ratio; choppy markets prone to spikes and liquidations
Oil price rebound will increase inflation concerns, indirectly supporting rate hike expectations; oil price decline improves risk sentiment.
Strategy:
Data collectively strong (employment + wages + PMI exceed expectations): rate hike expectations heat up, gold and BTC under pressure.
Data collectively weak: market revises down rate hike expectations, leading to rebound and recovery.
Mixed data: continue wide-range oscillation, focus on range-bound strategy. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧
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