Starting next Monday, the data side will first set a hurdle. Monday night’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.7, previous value 54.5, with the price sub-index still high, indicating inflationary pressure has not eased. Plus, BTC just broke below 77,000; long positions are crowded, funding rates remain positive, and leverage hasn’t been fully cleared. I think Monday won’t be a one-sided market, more like first facing pressure and testing before seeing if the data offers a way out. Price summary: BTC holds around 77,000, ETH is stuck near 2240 with weak rebound, SOL is hovering near 94 with RSI suppressed to 27.6 oversold but unable to bounce, ZEC stands at 1240 turning positive 1.4%, the most stable among the four. Position-wise, it’s more tangled than the weekend: 70% of BTC accounts are long with funding rates not turning negative, still holding hard despite the drop; SOL longs account for 76% but funding rates are negative, paying fees while holding positions; smart money on ETH is biased short, trapped above; ZEC short whales dropped from 212 to 124, with smart money longs at 78%, retail at 39%, whales picking up small retail hiding. Additionally, recent macro uncertainty has institutions cautious, ETF net inflows slowing, selling pressure not obvious but near resistance levels amplifies fear of highs. Putting it all together, Monday’s open will likely face pressure and test, BTC first watching if 76,000 holds, don’t expect a counterattack before data release. If ISM is tougher than expected with inflation sub-index rising, risk assets will take a hit. ZEC’s structure is most independent but can’t change the overall market alone. This early-week re-entry is a wait for leverage clearing, not a trend reversal; don’t rush to call a bottom before data lands. If there’s a sharp drop at open, don’t blindly catch the falling knife, wait for volume contraction and stabilization.
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