Woke up this morning to a terrifying silence in the crypto groups. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.347 billion, with bulls accounting for 86.68%, nearly $1.167 billion long positions buried. BTC dipped to a low of 76769, currently hovering around 77500, down nearly 5% in 24 hours. ETH is at 2238, down 4.19%; SOL is the worst hit, falling below 100 to a low of 94.38, with bears also increasing their positions.
The real killer is macro. The probability of the FOMC holding steady is 90%, but bets on a December rate hike have exceeded 70%. The market fears not the lack of a rate hike, but the wording of a “hawkish pause” — as real rate expectations rise, the discount rate on risk-free assets increases, directly suppressing capital’s willingness to allocate to BTC. ETF data also confirms this bias: BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $17.06 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT capturing $12.8 million; ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $105 million, pushing the cumulative outflow in October to $1.45 billion.
So I’m not rushing to bottom-fish, nor chasing shorts. BTC’s 76k is a short-term lifeline, ETH’s 2300 is a hard defense line formed by the 200-day EMA and whale cost bases, and SOL’s 100 has shifted from support to a ceiling. Closing confirmations at these three levels are far more important than intraday breaches. Until the hawkish pause is confirmed, keep leverage under 3x, survive first, then talk about direction 😉. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
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