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小坤(炸毛真神)
小坤(炸毛真神)
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短期情绪层面:没有超预期鹰派发言,不会出现突发性砸盘,之前提前避险、空仓观望的资金,有回流风险资产的动力。#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 存储、AI科技这一类成长股,对利率最敏感,理论上是受益的,刚好海力士财报的存储上行叙事还在,对闪迪$SNDK 、海力士$SKHYNIX 、$SOXL 是利好加持。 但是重点:只是“符合预期”,不是降息利好。市场早就把不加息这个结果提前计价进去了,利好不算惊喜,很难走出一波爆发式大涨,大概率是震荡修复行情,容易走出“买预期,卖事实”——消息落地之后资金借机冲高兑现。 后续核心看点,不再是加不加息,要看后续讲话里对通胀、降息时间表的措辞。如果表态偏鸽、认可通胀回落,科技股才有持续向上的动力;如果依旧强调通胀还有风险、降息会推迟,那这波反弹持续性就很差,冲高容易回落。 利空解除,给美股科技、存储板块创造了温和的修复环境,但不要当成强利好去追高,震荡为主,重点盯后续表态
八佰哥爱理财
八佰哥爱理财
The Federal Reserve remains on hold! Brother Ba Bai: The real show might just be getting started!
In the early morning of October 29 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision was officially announced! The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged in the 3.75%—4.00% range, in line with market expectations! For this result, Brother Ba Bai is not surprised at all! Because in my view, the current Federal Reserve has entered a very critical stage. It neither dares to raise rates lightly nor wants to release easing signals too early. On the surface, it looks like no action is taken, but in fact, it is waiting for economic data to provide a clearer direction. So the question is, what does this mean for the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market? First, the Federal Reserve not raising rates itself means the market temporarily has one less layer of pressure. Previously, the market repeatedly speculated on inflation, rate hikes, and liquidity tightening; every piece of news could trigger sharp fluctuations in tech stocks and Bitcoin. Now that the interest rate remains unchanged, it at least indicates that monetary policy has not tightened further. Second, what really deserves attention is the future expectation of rate cuts. The capital market always trades not only on today but on the future! If US inflation continues to decline and the job market gradually cools down, then the possibility of further monetary easing in the future will increase. Once the market forms a clear expectation of rate cuts again, tech stocks, semiconductors, and cryptocurrencies may all receive new valuation support. Third, Brother Ba Bai still has a long-term optimistic view on US tech stocks and semiconductors! Whether it's Nvidia, TSMC, Micron, or SK Hynix, these companies are backed by long-term development logic driven by artificial intelligence, computing power infrastructure, and storage chip demand.

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