The current market trend is too closely linked to the US stock market, but once BTC reaches around 81,000, it shows some strength, indicating there is still support here.
Last night during analysis, BTC was around $81,700, with the 4-hour MACD showing a death cross and RSI entering the oversold zone. I judged that there was a short-term rebound demand, but the bottom had not yet been confirmed.
Looking again today, BTC remains near $81,900, temporarily holding the $81,000 support, indicating that selling pressure has eased somewhat, but the rebound strength is clearly insufficient.
From a technical perspective, KDJ is still at a low level, trading volume continues to shrink, and the price is running below the short-term moving averages. This looks more like a weak consolidation after a decline rather than bulls regaining control.
On the macro level, the sustainability of the Nasdaq rebound remains to be verified, and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month adds more uncertainty to the market. BTC currently lacks catalysts for sustained upward momentum.
My judgment remains cautious: for the rest of October, BTC is likely to maintain a weak consolidation pattern.
Watch the downside at $81,000; if broken, it may retest $80,000. On the upside, BTC must firmly reclaim the $82,500–$83,300 range to improve the short-term structure.
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