#SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report after going public will be revealed
SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings after market close on October 20. I estimate revenue between 10.7 billion and 12.7 billion, below the consensus of 12.9 billion.
The basis is a reverse calculation.
12.9 billion minus Starlink's 4.7 billion and Space's 1.2 billion means AI must reach 7 billion.
The only verifiable AI revenue is from Anthropic, whose prospectus states 1.25 billion per month, making Q3 the first full quarter at full price, totaling 3.75 billion.
Adding Grok and X subscriptions at 1 billion brings it to 4.75 billion.
The remaining 2.2 billion gap must come from other cloud customers, but total cloud revenue in Q2 was only 1.6 billion, so doubling in one quarter is very difficult.
The CFO also mentioned that the newly signed 6.7 billion contract only started ramping up in October, so no revenue was recognized in Q3.
What really matters is another point: can AI surpass Starlink for the first time?
There was a 1.7 billion gap in Q2, but Q3 may very likely see AI overtake.
At that moment, SpaceX's valuation logic will change.
