TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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Besides the drop in oil prices, US Treasury yields are also falling. If the original plan to start releasing funds from the TGA account in mid to late November goes ahead and liquidity returns, then a rebound should be due around that time. The only question is whether the current long positions will still be held when the rebound begins in about 10 days.
TraderS | 缺德道人
Although the entire market has been discussing the Nvidia controversy all day today, the more important factor affecting the market—oil prices—is actually falling.
As long as oil prices steadily decline, inflation eases, CPI/PCE and other data look good, interest rate hike expectations weaken, and even Trump's approval rating can recover.
This removes the most important premise that previously caused the market to fall, making other minor details less significant.
So don't be confused by the current noisy chaos; crude oil is the anchor of the market. When oil falls, everything thrives. #英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 $CL $NVDA
The previous widespread market concern was that Anthropic's IPO would drain the already scarce liquidity, but unexpectedly, today Nvidia's Jensen Huang's scandal abruptly shattered market expectations.
Previously, the market valued Anthropic between 1.5-2 trillion USD, but the market is unpredictable. Now, with major AI concept stocks generally slashing prices, Anthropic's valuation has even been downgraded to between 1-1.2 trillion USD.
Normally, Nvidia's turmoil would mostly be an internal company matter, but now it has become a case of misfortune compounding misfortune, adding insult to injury. The market, already shaken by steep declines in storage, Google, and Intel, now appears even more unstable.
Friends who were preparing to jump on the Anthropic bandwagon shouldn't rush now. At that time, there were no cheap or valuable targets in the market, so it was natural to bet money on this unknown scenario. But now, with cheap chips bleeding everywhere, chasing Anthropic's train no longer seems very wise.
Those wanting to get on board Anthropic can wait until after the IPO stabilizes, especially after SPCX's big drop in July has shed its bubble. After all, missing out is much more comfortable than being trapped.
Coincidentally, tomorrow night I will be live on OKX Planet with a group of friends discussing the Anthropic IPO topic. Welcome to listen live. #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 $ANTHROPIC
Although the entire market has been discussing the Nvidia controversy all day today, the more important factor affecting the market—oil prices—is actually falling.
As long as oil prices steadily decline, inflation eases, CPI/PCE and other data look good, interest rate hike expectations weaken, and even Trump's approval rating can recover.
This removes the most important premise that previously caused the market to fall, making other minor details less significant.
So don't be confused by the current noisy chaos; crude oil is the anchor of the market. When oil falls, everything thrives. #英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 $CL $NVDA
When the market is bad, people look everywhere for good news, but who knows when it might suddenly reverse? Today there’s a major mainstream news item hiding good news: Anthropic has spent $3.4 billion to purchase gas-fired power generation equipment to supply power to its data centers.
This news undoubtedly lays the groundwork for the Anthropic roadshow that may start next week. After all, making such a large purchase of long-cycle infrastructure equipment shows confidence in the future potential for increased computing power.
Although rumors are spreading everywhere that Anthropic might cancel its IPO, and some mock the $ANT ticker as unlucky like Ant Financial, prone to failure, such a huge project supporting millions of workers’ livelihoods will be supported regardless of which faction takes charge. It’s just a matter of redistributing the pie.
Previously, Elon Musk rapidly built large-scale data centers by massively purchasing power generation equipment, enabling him to sell computing power for profit. The shortage of computing power won’t change in just a few days due to stock price fluctuations.
Some places with other economic pillars might not care about computing power centers, but there are always poorer, less developed areas that welcome them. It’s just a matter of building in different locations.
Simple math shows that this round of major decline is similar to the SPCX plunge to 104 after listing, both clearing out low-leverage positions at 3x and 5x multiples. Next might be a sideways movement instead of further drops to shake out retail investors.
Because further drops would give away cheap chips, and immediate rallies would hand money to retail investors, only a sideways consolidation dragging the market into despair before a restart is the best scenario. $ANTHROPIC
There are two news items worth paying attention to together: one is that Netanyahu has finally stepped down, and the other is that Trump fired White House Chief of Staff Meadows.
Thus, the goal of striking Iran to achieve regime change, which started at the end of February, has been overachieved by one and a half times — Israel's regime has completely changed, and the U.S. has changed halfway.
Of course, Israel's regime change still has uncertainties before it is fully implemented. If Eisenkot fails to form a government, the Israeli president will nominate another person, and if that also fails, new elections will be held within 90 days. During this period, Netanyahu will continue to serve as caretaker prime minister.
The key link between these two news items is that Meadows once served as a campaign advisor for both Netanyahu and Trump. In other words, regardless of whether Netanyahu really exerted influence through Meadows before the war, now Israel needs to take the blame.
Moreover, Meadows' resume shows a high probability that Netanyahu influenced the decision to go to war through her. Removing her implies and admits that Trump was initially influenced by Israel regarding Iran. So this faction needs to take responsibility.
At this point, Trump must be deeply regretful after his crushing defeat in the midterms.
But his successor Miller is also a very extreme person; Trump's first term travel ban and family separation policies were his creations. His succession does not mean Trump will turn moderate, nor does it mean the Iran situation will cease. It will only increase market uncertainty. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
The Democratic Party's move to halt new computing power construction in China is essentially a reshuffling of power and a redistribution of interests.
Take Texas as an example: the official stance is to pause new projects until the state legislature establishes resident protection measures and reworks tax incentives; there is no proposal to permanently shut down all data centers.
Moreover, as early as September 21, Republican Governor Abbott actually ordered a suspension of related permits, pending audits, and required projects to bear the costs of power infrastructure.
So this change is actually using the midterm elections to stop the previous momentum where the public felt the government sacrificed grassroots interests to squeeze resources and subsidize corporate expansion. In the future, data centers will have to pay more themselves to upgrade the power grid, pay more for more expensive water, and pay more taxes.
This further increases the operating costs of computing power centers that previously expanded by issuing corporate bonds. Coupled with already high financing costs and terminal revenues that never cover costs, this has led to panic-driven stock price crashes due to expectations of a broken funding chain.
Even if the construction of computing power centers is only temporarily halted, the impact will be huge. Changxin is catching up quickly: the sixth-generation platform has completed engineering sample verification, the first-generation 4F² DDR5 RDIMM products are expected to be sampled by the end of the year, and HBM3E has already entered small-batch production. During this critical catch-up period, the US side's halt undoubtedly gives competitors an excellent opportunity to surpass, further compressing the future profit expectations of US-Korean storage.
Regarding my SanDisk holdings, I will probably wait for an emotional oversold rebound before exiting, which can minimize losses or even avoid them. But before the bipartisan struggle nears resolution, it may not be suitable for long-term holding.
TraderS | 缺德道人
I wanted to say yesterday that there's no need to worry about the Democrats halting data center construction. At most, it's just a temporary political noise from party conflicts. When the Democrats come to power, it's just about redistributing the pie, shifting benefits to their own districts and supporting companies, reallocating land, water, and electricity.
If the Democrats really made a bold move to stop construction, wouldn't China just win easily in the AI competition? If the Democrats actually did something that hands over the country's fate like that, China should award them a one-ton medal. The people who make the decision to stop construction should be sent straight to a military tribunal and executed.
Go ahead and stop, permanently halt construction, even if it causes me to liquidate and lose the country's fate, I'll accept it.
Either I win, or the country wins, both ways it's a win, winning big, that's a good thing, hurry up and stop construction #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
I wanted to say yesterday that there's no need to worry about the Democrats halting data center construction. At most, it's just a temporary political noise from party conflicts. When the Democrats come to power, it's just about redistributing the pie, shifting benefits to their own districts and supporting companies, reallocating land, water, and electricity.
If the Democrats really made a bold move to stop construction, wouldn't China just win easily in the AI competition? If the Democrats actually did something that hands over the country's fate like that, China should award them a one-ton medal. The people who make the decision to stop construction should be sent straight to a military tribunal and executed.
Go ahead and stop, permanently halt construction, even if it causes me to liquidate and lose the country's fate, I'll accept it.
Either I win, or the country wins, both ways it's a win, winning big, that's a good thing, hurry up and stop construction #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
Trend after the midterm elections
A bit of discomfort and diarrhea due to the change in environment, so I won't go out this afternoon. I just happen to have time to carefully summarize the results of this election. Trump was flipped blue in six states, with Texas and South Carolina suffering the most notable defeats. Especially Texas, as the stronghold of rednecks, losing really broke the morale of Trump supporters. However, the good news is that his base still exists, but the numbers are not enough to help him win the presidential election. His previous victory was largely due to the "one divine shot" that attracted centrist voters and led to a landslide win. Moreover, if you look closely, Trump also used his influence to help the Republican Party win the primaries in Texas and South Carolina. So even if there is internal division, it is still controllable. The party candidates will still rely on Trump’s support in the 2028 presidential election. This morning’s big drop was probably the market pricing in the previously unpriced South Carolina Senate race. For the market, the short-term uncertainty has disappeared, and the bad news has been fully priced in, so after the results came out, the market rebounded across the board. But in the medium to long term, issues like the debt ceiling, government shutdown, and data centers will soon return to the table. Before that, the Shenzhen APEC meeting in mid to late November might bring some positive sentiment or news. Although statistics show that the U.S. stock market must rise within 12 months after the election, this may be more meaningful for long-term spot holders and less so for those used to short-term trading in the crypto space. After all, you can’t guarantee no liquidation in between. But in the short term, prices of various assets are attractive enough—Bitcoin, gold, and big tech stocks are basically in a state where you can blindly buy and still make a profit. So I recently
Although the market looks so rotten right now, looking on the bright side, it's a rare opportunity to pick up cheap, bloodied chips in the golden pit. Actually, the US stock market isn't really collapsing yet; if it truly collapsed, that might be better, giving Powell a good excuse to switch from raising interest rates to cutting them. With today's drop, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped by 5 points #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $INTC $AMZN
Although there was the theft incident today, the market focus is undoubtedly still on US stocks AI, especially after Amazon and Intel's earnings reports caused such a severe drop that the original AI narrative now seems unsustainable. This bottomless money-burning pit has made the market very pessimistic, and it seems difficult to stop the decline without a new narrative.
In fact, at the latest since Q2, the market has stopped rewarding the money-burning game of low income and high expenditure. From a long-term cycle perspective, the September rebound was actually just the aftershock of the July decline. If there were still illusions about the AI bubble before, this drop undoubtedly proves that the AI hype has peaked.
When Anthropic goes public next month, it may coincide with a period of market liquidity and confidence recovery, but Anthropic's massive cash burn will likely offset any possible macro improvements, making people somewhat pessimistic again.
The current AI craze has caused hardware prices to soar, storage prices to surge, which in turn has increased costs across the entire industry chain. Amazon raised its Q2 capex citing storage costs, Samsung's mobile and home appliance division lost 800 billion KRW due to storage price hikes, and Intel's PC revenue dropped by 5%.
Against the backdrop of terminal revenue insufficient to support this bottomless money-burning, an invisible upper limit on stock prices has actually been drawn.
Returning to Bitcoin, there was probably already demand for further decline, compounded by the US stock market crash and the theft catalyst, today's drop can be seen as an acceleration, but from another perspective, with such a big negative event only pushing it down to 76k, isn't that quite strong? #加密行业协同守护资产安全
