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理智分析的牛
DEX成交量一天减少25.7%,我会先想最坏情况:如果成交收缩也伴随池子深度变薄,那么退出时的实际亏损,可能超过事先设定的止损。DefiLlama这组数据里,交易量较一周前也在下降,头部交易场所仍有成交。
我更在意的是执行风险,而不是把缩量直接判成利空。⚠️成交量不等于流动性,单凭这个降幅还不能断言难卖;但如果所交易的池子深度不足,滑点会侵蚀风险预算,止损触发也不代表能按那个价格成交。这是我的风险推演,不是已经发生的结果。
风控做久了,我习惯把“计划亏多少”和“最坏可能亏多少”分开算。给普通人的一条提醒:单笔风险预算要留出滑点和费用的余地,别把止损价当成保本线。

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