Post
jason980913
有人说预测市场比民调准，我觉得有点依据。问卷里随口选个答案没啥成本，真要掏钱表达判断，多少会多掂量几下。像大饼能否在约定时间满足某个条件，交易的是明确结果，跟平时盯着涨跌做单不太一样。赔率能当作场内资金给出的概率参考，但不代表所有人的看法。尤其参与的人少，我就有点犯嘀咕：这赔率到底是大家认同，还是某个大户钱多，把声音盖过去了？
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