ADP at 21:15 is the rehearsal for Friday's NFP — 69k expected vs 90k last time. A mild miss helps $BTC via rate-cut hopes; a big miss is the growth-scare version. Watching yields and Nasdaq after the print.
爱干饭的一米
Tonight at 21:15, the US October ADP employment data will be released
The market expects an increase of 69,000 jobs, down from the previous 90,000, indicating that the slowdown in employment growth is already priced in
Today, the Nasdaq 100 briefly turned down before the session, so this data is worth paying attention to:
The market may no longer simply view weak employment as a positive 🤨
If the data is slightly below expectations, the rising expectations of rate cuts might provide some support to the Nasdaq and $BTC
But if employment deteriorates significantly, market concerns may shift from interest rates to economic growth, causing risk assets to come under pressure
Therefore, tonight I am more focused on the reaction of US Treasury yields and the Nasdaq after the data release, especially whether tech stocks can rally when rates decline
After all, Friday has even more important nonfarm payroll data; tonight's ADP is more like a rehearsal
My judgment is that a mild weakening of the data may be beneficial for risk assets, but a large miss could warrant caution for further market declines
Cooling employment is good news, but a sharp employment slowdown is a different story
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
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