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#全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？
这波黄金拉升，本质是"避险+机会成本"双驱动。11月4日午后现货黄金突破4000美元，日内涨幅超2%，国内沪金主力同步走强。消息面上，民主党重掌国会的预期带来政策不确定性，资金转向避险资产，美债收益率下行、美元跌至9月底以来低点，直接为金价打开空间。结构性支撑来自央行购金：三季度全球央行净增持321吨，同比增42%。风险同样明确：JOLTS职位空缺超预期，12月加息概率被定价到约80%，对金价形成压制，且10月底金价刚从3870美元附近反弹，波动极大。配置可以，追涨需谨慎。$XAU $BTC $ETH
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