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qi奇
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Q3 大概率延续「增收难增利」的格局：USDC 流通量增长（长期指引维持 40% 复合增速）和 Payments Network、Arc 生态的扩张是真实的多头逻辑，但在储备收益率降至 3.5% 且仍在下行、Coinbase 分走大半利息、股权激励费用高企的三重挤压下，稳定币规模增长向股东收益的转化效率仍是本财报最大的问号。
① 季度平均 USDC 流通量增速是否 ≥20%；② 储备回报率是否跌破 3.4%；③ 常规其他收入环比是否加速；④ RLDC 利润率指引是否剔除 Arc 预售后仍在上调。若四项中三项向好，「增长兑现收益」的叙事就能站稳；反之，51 倍远期市盈率将缺乏支撑。
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