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BlockBeats news, on November 3, JPMorgan conducted a scenario analysis of four possible congressional power combinations after the U.S. midterm elections. Among them, the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and Senate is the highest at 66%; the probability of the Republican Party holding both chambers is only 7%, but this corresponds to the largest expected increase in the S&P 500 index among the four scenarios. Democrats control both chambers (66% probability): The S&P 500 index may fall by 0.25% or rise by 0.5%. Market concerns about stricter AI regulations and restrictions on data center construction may trigger a sell-off in AI concept stocks. However, JPMorgan believes that even if legislation restricting AI industry development passes Congress, it is unlikely to get enough votes to override a presidential veto by Trump, so traders are advised to consider buying on tech stock pullbacks. Fiscal deficit spending may decrease, long-term U.S. Treasury yields face downward pressure, and some corporate executives linked to Trump’s political donations may face greater congressional investigation risks. Democrats control the House, Republicans control the Senate (26% probability): The S&P 500 index is expected to rise between 0.5% and 1%. The market may welcome the legislative gridlock brought by divided power, as neither side can unilaterally push major policies or expand government spending. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields may decline, but some companies and their leaders may still face congressional investigations. Republicans hold both chambers (7% probability): The S&P 500 index is expected to rise between 1% and 1.25%. The market does not have to immediately face new congressional regulatory risks, and additional policy pressure on tech companies is relatively limited. However, fiscal deficit spending may further increase, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher; Trump may continue military actions against Iran, which is also a potential risk under this scenario. Republicans control the House, Democrats control the Senate (1% probability): The S&P 500 index is expected to rise between 0.25% and 0.75%. Divided control of Congress may trigger more intense budget battles, potentially leading to a federal government shutdown. With Democrats controlling the Senate, congressional investigations can still proceed, and investigation risks for related companies and individuals will not disappear.