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broshao
21.21万美元的名义仓位，做空的理论盈利上限也就这么多，前提还是币价归零、忽略费用。我看这笔$ZEC新空单，先看这个收益天花板；素材里是6倍杠杆、166.78枚。
价格上涨带来的理论亏损，却没有同样的天花板，实际还有强平机制介入。所以我不会把名义仓位当成最大亏损，也不会把杠杆当成赔率。没有止损和退出目标，这笔交易的期望值根本算不清。
换成我来评估，如果预期下跌空间明显大于止损距离，且能在强平前主动退出，才值得研究；如果只是觉得涨得贵，靠扛单等回落，我会放弃。面对这类空单，你更看重判断下跌的胜率，还是预期利润相对止损的赔率？
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