Quick overview after looking at oil prices and US stocks
1️⃣ Fed's Waller spoke, as mentioned before, still reducing forward guidance, focusing on data, since December is still far away, not much will be said.
2️⃣ Google is currently down 10 points pre-market in the US, breaking below $300, reaching the lowest level since Q1 this year. Actually, a good bottom is forming, whether spot or futures, as a core heavyweight stock, the risk is actually quite low.
3️⃣ I closed my Micron long position, nearly 60 points last night, didn't hold, thinking Waller wouldn't be too hawkish, plus oil prices didn't continue rising. If Google's earnings looked good, it could push above 1,000, but things didn't go as hoped, only about 40 points gained before exiting. I'll look for opportunities below 900 again.
4️⃣ Tonight is PCE data. The market already expects some rate hikes in December, and Waller didn't say much. We'll see tonight's PCE; if the data meets expectations, the market will likely be volatile. Then watch October inflation data; if it exceeds the expected 3.1 or is very high, it will trigger panic. Risk markets will look bad then. I don't want to gamble too much on this data, so I closed the Micron long.
5️⃣ Next, still focusing on oil prices. Just before posting, #WTI dropped below $101 again. Those following my tweets know I still hold my short position. Let's see if Trump can make real progress on talks before the midterms. Although I'm prepared for Trump possibly expanding actions after the midterms. Suppressed by high oil prices, risk markets will struggle to perform well
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